The Kroger Co. (KR)
Update 11/30/2017: KR announced earnings of $0.4139 per share, beating analysts’ consensus expectation of $0.40. Share prices rose by $3.29 in early trading before the opening bell and then at the open went into a decline that lasted the day. I exited early, near the peak., at 86.1% of maximum potential return.
Shares rose by 11.8% during the one-day lifespan of the position, or a +4,301% annual rate. The options position produced a +620.0% return (not a typo) for a +226,300 annual rate (also not a typo).
From the pre-earns close to the close of the first post-earns session, the price rose by $1.48, well within the post-earns moves of the last four quarters.
Eleven analyst forecasts had implied a positive earnings surprise, with a Zacks earnings surprise predictor score of 3.33 in the context of a neutral longer-range rank of 3.
The trend metrics were mildly bullish, with an average directional index (ADX) of 25.88, a +DI of 32.38 and a -DI of 12.43.
KR publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on Dec. 15.
Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
KR’s IV stands in the 75th percentile of its annual range and the 92nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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