9/18 – 3:05 p.m. New York time
No trades today, as I expected.
9/17 – 6:05 p.m. New York time
I have no earnings announcements as prospective trades on Monday. I shall be looking at eight potential trades throughout the week: ADBE, BBBY, FDX, GIS, JBL, RHT, KMX and CCL.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 17-18, 2017
The Federal Open Market Committee culminates a two-day meeting on Wednesday with an announcement and forecasts at 2 p.m. New York time, and a news conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 2:30 p.m.
The FOMC raised the Fed Funds Rate to 1.25% on June 14. Widely held expectations are for one more rate increase this year, and Wednesday’s meeting would be a prime candidate for the decision.
Two major housing reports will be issued: Housing starts, on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and existing home sales on Wednesday at 10 a.m.
9/15 – 2:30 p.m. New York time
I entered no new positions, and exited none.
9/14 – 9:25 p.m. New York time
I have no prospective new positions for analysis on Friday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 14-15, 2017
Oracle Corp. (ORCL)
Update 9/25/2017: ORCL gapped $2.14 to the downside after earnings were published, declining for four consecutive days before recovering a small amount of the loss. The expiration calendar dictated my exit on Monday for a loss.
Earnings came in about as expected, with a consensus forecast of 63 cents per share and reported earnings of 62 cents. Zacks analysis had forecast only a -0.34% chance of a downside earnings surprise. The stock’s beta, at 1.05, ios equivalent to the S&P 500.
The first-day declined of $4.05 after earnings exited the expected move of $2.37 and the average post-earnings move over the past year of $4.33. In some, the price response was a true outlier.
Shares declined by 6.3% over 11 days, or a -209% annual rate. The options position produced a -37.9% loss for a -1,257% annual rate.
ORCL publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on Sept. 29.
Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
ORCL’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.
9/14 – 2:55 p.m. New York time
Outcomes: I entered a position on ORCL timed to coincide with an earnings announcement.
9/13 – 2:25 p.m. New York time
As anticipated, no trades today. My one positions remains a bullish vertical spread on SPY based on Elliott wave analysis, and it is proceeding as I had hoped.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 13, 2017
9/12 – 3:05 P.M. New York time
Outcomes: No new positions and no exits.
I had posted last week that there were no actionable earnings announcements in sight for this week. That has changed. I shall be looking at ORCL on Thursday as a potential new position.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Update Oct. 25, 2017: SPY has completed its uptrend according to my Elliott wave count. I am closing this series and have opened a new series based on bear verticals, which may be read here.
The series began on Sept. 11, 2017, and I exited the final position on Oct. 6, for 25 days altogether. I was continually in the position throughout that period.
Shares rose by 1.6% over 25 days, or a +23% annual rate. The options position produced a +44.8% return for a +854% annual rate
9/11 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I made one trade today, entering a position on SPY based on Elliott wave theory. This week there are no earnings plays that qualify for further analysis, so I am looking elsewhere for trades.
It has been awhile since I have traded based on Elliott wave theory, although I use it all the time in deciding when I should exit. Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. Here are some places to go for more information:
This is a week for a potpourri of data, including two price reports: The consumer price index on Thursday and the producer price-final demand index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
Also out, on Friday, retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production a 9:15 a.m.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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