7/20 – 12:05 p.m. New York time
My exit order on URI has been filled. I shall post results for both URI and PM shortly.
Author: Tim Bovee
Live: Wednesday, July 19, 2017
Live: Tuesday, July 18, 2017
MSFT Analysis
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Update 7/21/2017: MSFT shares rose and then declined after earnings were published, and I exited a 58.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares rose by a net 1.6% over the four days I held the position, or a +144% annual rate. The options position produced a +58.9% yield on debit for a +5,371% annual rate.
MSFT publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days later, on July 28.
Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
MSFT’s IV stands in the 74th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
QCOM Analysis
QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM)
Update 7/24/2017: QCOM gapped downward after earnings were published and continued to decline for the next two days, and I exited as expiration approached.
Shares declined by -5.0% over seven days, or a -258% annual rate. The options position produced a 14.3% loss on debit for a -747.6% annual rate.
QCOM publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days later, on July 28.
Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
QCOM’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 77th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
URI Analysis
United Rentals Inc. (URI)
Update 7/20/2017: URI gapped upward after earnings were published. I exited at 25.0% of maximum potential profit.
Shares rose by 4.2% over three days, or a +507.1% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +4,049% annual rate.
URI publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days later, on July 28.
Implied volatility stands at 44%, which is 4.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
URI’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.
EBAY Analysis
eBay Inc. (EBAY)
Update 7/21/2017: EBAY gapped downward after earnings were published, and I exited at 45.1% of maximum potential profit
Shares declined by 1.9% over four days, or a -170% annual rate. The options position produced a +82.1% yield on debit for a +7,496% annual rate
EBAY publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days later, on July 28.
Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
EBAY’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
PM Analysis
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
Update 7/20/2017: PM fell sharply after earnings were published. I exited at 39.6% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 0.5% over three days, or a -56% annual rate. The options position produced a 65.9% yield on debit for a +7,992% annual rate
PM publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days later, on July 28.
Implied volatility stands at 22%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
PM’s IV stands in the 66th percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.
GE Analysis
General Electric Co. (GE)
Update 7/24/2017: GE gapped downward after earnings were published, and I exited as expiration approached.
Shares declined by 4.6% over seven days, or a -240% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.2% loss on debit for a -2,146% annual rate.
GE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days later, on July 28.
Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 2.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
GE’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Monday, July 17, 2017
The7/17 – 3:35 p.m. New York time
Outcomes: I entered six new positions today, all coinciding with earnings announcements throughout the week. They are EBAY, GE, MSFT, PM, QCOM and URI. I exited three positions — STZ, XBI and XLK — and updated their analyses with results.
I decided to hold off on my analysis of HAL, which doesn’t publish earnings until Monday before the opening bell.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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