Seagate Technology plc (STX)
Update 8/4/2017: STX fell by $10 immediately after earnings were published and then reclaimed about $4 of the decline before settling into a sideways trend for the rest of my holding period . I exited for a loss at a $6.25 premium with shares at $33.53 as expiration approached.
The losing short puts breakeven strike that defined the losing side of the trade showed a 71% chance of expiring out of the money at entry. Those odds declined to 4% at exit, above two standard deviations.
Shares declined by a net 15.8% over my 11-day holding period, or a -525% annual rate. The options position produced a -47.7% loss on debit for a -1,5825 annual rate.
STX publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 19 days later, on Aug.11.
Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
STX’s IV stands in the 82nd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.
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