Holiday note: U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, February 17, for Presidents Day. Trading will resume on Tuesday.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures dithered in a narrow range, from the 6120s to the 6140s, in a session that went nowhere. This morning’s analysis stands unchanged, and the accompanying ambiguity, unresolved.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, to 6146.75, and then declined into the 6120s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The rise, wave C within a larger B wave, came within $1 of the end of the preceding A wave and remained below the December 16, 2024 peak, 6163.75.

No rules of Elliott Wave Theory were broken. There are other reasons to think that the alternative scenario, discussed below in the “What are the alternatives?” section, is better fit. The man reason is that the as labelled is disproportionate to other waves of the same degree within the fractal structure of the chart.

it’s all very subjective, and I’m inclined at present to stick the principal analysis, while keeping a close watch for price patterns that would push the decision in favor of the alternative.

At present: Declining ave 3{-19} within falling wave C{-18} within falling wave B{-17}, the middle subwave of three within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13.

I’ve retained the Fibonacci ladder on the chart. The overnight peak moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If the principal analysis is correct, the 3rd wave should return to its decline, perhaps reaching into the 5900s. If the alternative analysis is correct, the price will turn, breaking above 6147.75, the peak of wave B.

If it breaks above 6163.75, the December 24, 2024 peak, then all of the analysis from that day forward will require reanalysis to match the new reality.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 105-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? Should the 1st-wave endpoint, wave 1{-19}, on February 2 instead be labeled as the parent wave C{-18} endpoint, bringing to an end the B{-17} wave that is one degree higher in the fractal chain of the chart and the beginning of a rising wave C{-17wave. All of this is happening within the wave 4{-16} upward correction that began on January 13. The rising C wave, if it is in fact underway, the final subwave of that correction.

If the price moves above 6123.25, the high of rising wave 2{-19} in the principal analysis, then I would switch to an alternative scenario: Wave B ended on February 2.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Declining wave C{-19}, the final subwave of wave B{-18}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• C{-19} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.5 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 14, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, from the 6070s at the opening bell into the 6130s as the closing bell approached.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise, part of a falling 3rd wave that began on February 7, moved above the end of the preceding 2nd wave. Which is within rules of the Theory. No foul, no harm.

In discussing alternative counts (see the “What are the alternatives” section below), I’ve said that if the 3rd wave moved above the end of the 2nd wave, I’d start getting nervous about the analysis. It did move above that point — 6123.25 — up to 6135.50, so I’m now officially nervous.

I’ll look at the matter again on Friday, maybe even ponder it over the weekend, and make a call on Monday, for sure.

It’s charts like this one that cause me to shake my head gently and mutter to myself, “Isn’t ambiguity fun.”

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures overnight continued to fluctuate between two Fibonacci retracement levels, 50% and 38.2% (on the chart in red).

What does it mean? In Ellioitt Wave Theory analysis, the movement is a 2nd-wave upward correction within a downtrending 3rd-wave that began on February 7.

Above that, we get into corrections: The 3rd wave is a subwave of a larger wave C that began on January 31, the final subwave of a still larger wave B that began on January 24.

It’s all part of a 4th-wave downward correction that began on January 13.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? Should the 1st-wave endpoint, wave 1{-19}, on February 2 instead be labeled as the parent wave C{-18} endpoint, bringing to an end the B{-17} wave that is one degree higher in the fractal chain of the chart and the beginning of a rising wave C{-17wave. All of this is happening within the wave 4{-16} upward correction that began on January 13. The rising C wave, if it is in fact underway, the final subwave of that correction.

If the price moves above 6123.25, the high of rising wave 2{-19} in the principal analysis, then I would switch to an alternative scenario: Wave B ended on February 2.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Declining wave C{-19}, the final subwave of wave B{-18}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• C{-19} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.5 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 13, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, pausing at 3080, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It’s as though this morning’s drama with the higher than expected inflation report became a distant, not so fond memory before the session intended.

Elliott Wave Theory: And where are we now? About where we were before the inflation report. The 38.2% retracement level was where the price was stuck before the inflation announcement, and 38.2 is where it is as the closing bell approaches.

A small declining 3rd wave with a larger declining C wave within a still larger falling B wave within a 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures dropped 65 points in a minuter after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that inflation was worse that expected in January, from 6098 down to 6093.50. It then worked its way lower over the next few minutes to the 6020s.

What does it mean? The decline, as viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, was the expected resumption of the decline of the 3rd wave that began on February 7. The 3rd wave is the middle subwave with a declining C wave that began on January 31.

The C wave, when complete, will be the end of the larger declining B wave that began on January 24.

The waves on the chart have numbers and letters, each followed by a subsvript in curly brackets that shows how many degrees the wave is, within the fractal structure of the chart, from Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began in December 2018. On this chart, the waves are all smaller than Intermediate degree, so the numbers in brackets are negative.

The 3rd wave that fell sharply overnight is wave 3{-19} within declining wave C{-18}. Both are within wave B{-17}, the middle subwave of an upward correction that began on January 11, wave 4{-16}.

The decline carried the price down to the 61.8% Fibnacci retracement of the preceding A{-17} wave, typically a stopping point and sometimes a reversal point. The Fibonacci retracement ladder is shown on the chart in red.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The ambiguity has not been resolved. Should the 1st-wave endpoint, wave 1{-19}, on February 2 instead be labeled as the parent wave C{-18} endpoint, bringing to an end the B{-17} wave that is one degree higher in the fractal chain of the chart and the beginning of a rising wave C{-17wave. All of this is happening within the wave 4{-16} upward correction that began on January 13. The rising C wave, if it is in fact underway, the final subwave of that correction.

If the price moves above 6123.25, the high of rising wave 2{-19} in the principal analysis, then I would switch to an alternative scenario: Wave B ended on February 2. The price showed a sharp decline today without having moved above 6123.25, so by that criterion a re-analysis hasn’t been triggered.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Declining wave C{-19}, the final subwave of wave B{-18}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• C{-19} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.5 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 12, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Viewing the chart through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory: The S&P 500 futures, on its journey through declining wave C within a correction, rose beyond the 38.2%. Fibonacci level of retracement of the preceding A wave. The level is at 6080. The rise during the session has come with 2 points of 6100.

The next step under the principal analysis is for the price to reverse and resume its decline,

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, from the 6080s to the 6060s.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory, the decline resumed the downward direction within the final subwave, wave C, within the a B wave one degree larger that began on January 24. The Fibonacci retracement ladder, on the chart in red, shows that the retracement has reached the 50% of the length of the preceding A wave. The 50% level can be a pause point, but the next major pause point is the 61.8% level at 6029.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? An ambiguity: Should the 1st-wave endpoint on February 2 instead be labeled as the parent C-wave endpoint, bringing to an end the B wave that is one degree higher n the fractal chain of the chart and the beginning of a rising C wave. All of this is happening within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13. The rising C wave, if it is in fact underway, the final subwave of that correction.

If the price moves above 6123.25, the high of rising wave 2{-19} in the principal analysis, then I would switch to an alternative scenario: Wave B ended on February 2.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Declining wave C{-19}, the final subwave of wave B{-18}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• C{-19} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.5 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 11, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the opening bell. The S&P 500 worked its way higher during the session, into the 6090s. Elliott Wave Theory: The final subwave, declining wave C, within the middle subwave, declining wave B, within a 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading overnight slightly above 6,000, rose immediately into the 6070s, and traded in a narrow range thereafter, occasionally rising into the 6080s.

What does it mean? I’ve adjusted the chart to encompass the 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13, according to Elliott Wave Theory as applied to this chart. I’ve also added a Fibonacci retracement ladder, in red, to better understand the path of the C wave that began on January 31, the final subwave of the correction.

C waves have five subwaves. This wave C is presently in its middle subwave, wave C, which began on February 7.

The B wave rose to within 30 of the starting point of the preceding A wave, and then reversed, beginning wave C. So far the declining C wave has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave A. A waves are generally at least the same length as wave A, and with certain patterns, can be 65% longer.

Regular readers will notice that I have changed the labeling of the wave C subwaves from letters to numbers. I erred in using letters. C waves, internally, have numbered C waves, as is natural for a five-wave structure.

At this point, for clarity, I’m switching the wave labelling to that used on the chart, where each wave number or letter is followed by a subscript in curly brackets showing how many degrees below Intermediate degree the wave stands. It’s a way of placing the wave within the elaborate fractal structure formed by the price patterns of trades. The current Intermediate wave is wave 5{0}, which began in December 2018.

We are dealing with an ongoing corrections, wave 4{-16}, which began on January 13. It working through its middle subwave, wave B{-17}. which in turn is in its final wave, wave C{-18}. And wave C{-18} is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-19}.

When the future wave 5{-19} is complete, it will also be the end of wave C{-18}, which is the final wave within wave B{-17}. Uptrending wave C{-17} will then carry the price higher.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? No ambiguities as of yet. They will almost certainly show up, as they always do.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Declining wave C{-19}, the final subwave of wave B{-18}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• C{-19} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.5 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 10, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The peak early in the session was 6123.25. The subsequent decline into the 6040s so far is long enough to make a strong case that the small rising wave B we’ve tracking ended at the peak, and declining wave C began and is still underway.

I’ve altered the chart to conform to that scenario. The wave now underway is labelled C{-19}, with the subscript in parentheses showing how many degrees below Intermediate degree the wave is.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures whipsawed between 6114.75 and 6087.50 when the Employment Situation Report was released an hour before the opening bell. The report sowed unemployment at 4% in January, down a tenth of a percent from December.

The whipsaw, after a few dramatic swings left the S&P 500 price about where it had been before the employment release.

What does it mean? The market response reached a higher point in the upward movement that began on February 2, confirming that wave B is still underway.

Wave B is the middle subwave of a small upward correction is still underway, as it has been since February 2. The high point of the whipsaw described above, 6114..75, is now the highest point of wave B. There had been some ambiguity about wave B’s status yesterday.

At a larger level there’s no question about the directions the market is taking. Those small moves are happening within a falling C wave that began on January 31, which in turn is part of a falling B wave that began on on January 24.

All of that is a subwave of a 4th-wave rising correction that began January 13.. It will be followed by a declining 5th wave. The entire structure described so far is part of a series of declining wave, each larger than the previous one in the nested series, covering nine degrees within the fractal structure of the chart, up to a 4th-wave downward correction that begin on December 16 from the 6163.75 peak that is a major turning point in the market. That large 4th-wave correction is still in its initial subwave, wave A.

So, yes, the smaller waves are tracing their ups and downs, sometimes with ambiguity. At the larger levels, the market will be declining for some time to come.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? And the ambiguity from this morning still stands, with a higher starting point. The decline could be a head-fake that will quickly reverse, reaching a higher high as wave B continues.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses, updated with today’s reanalysis.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Declining wave C{-19}, the final subwave of wave B{-18}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• C{-19} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.5 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 7, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures late in the session suddenly dropped, from within $2 of the $6100 level down into the 6070s in 15 minutes.

The decline broke from from the sideways tangle that has been the pattern since February 5 and, in Elliott Wave Theory terminology, increases the likelihood that the peak of the tangle, 6106.25, was the end of rising wave B within the present correction and the start of declining wave C. That peak was reached right at the opening bell this morning.

I’m not yet ready to mark the chart to declare that wave C is underway. I’d like to see a bit more decline before doing so. Also, AMZN publishes earnings after the close, and that’s often a market-mover. So I’ll wait until tomorrow morning before reaching a decision on the matter.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching 6105, and then declined into the 6080s.

What does it mean? The price movement was a scribble on the chart, of little significance. For the Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the ongoing question is: Has the rising B-wave ended? The wave is the middle subwave of a small downward correction that began on January 31.

The B wave — wave B{-19} on the chart — has completed two of its three subwaves and could complete the final subwave at any time, ending the small correction, and also the final wave of a larger correction — one degree higher, which would end the middle subwave, wave B, of a still larger correction.

The chart at this point is a tangle of corrections. See the wave lists, below, for the full structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The question here is: Are the degrees correct? I think so, but it hasn’t been tested yet.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses, updated with today’s reanalysis.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}
• Rising wave B{-19}, the middle subwave of wave B{-18}, is nearing its end. It appears to be in its third subwave, wave C{-20}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)
• B{-19} (unnamed), 2/2/2025, 5935.5 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 6, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 6080s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise was sufficient to knock out the scenario that the rising B-wave within a downward correction that began on January 31 had ended. It is still underway.

The wave is wave B{-19} on the chart, the B being the wave designation and the {-19} showing how many degrees the wave is below Intermediate degree. The Intermediate degree now underway is wave 5{0}, which began in December 2018. So wave B{-19} is tiny wave.

So why are such small fry important? Because they give an early signal when things are about to change. That’s good. Sometimes their signals are ambiguous. Not to so good.

It seems to me that wave B{-19} is in its final subwave, although that is not a certainty.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell for much of overnight trading and then rose, retracing a portion of the decline.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the overnight ballet as the final wave of small downward correction that began on January 31 working through its endgame, with the repeated leaps and crouches (Grande Jeté and Plié) that are structural heart of a stock chart.

The entire performance is within a 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13. It is now in its middle wave of three, wave B, which began on January 24 The middle wave is also following a three-wave corrective pattern and is now in the final subwave, wave C, which began on January 31. And within that C wave is yet another C wave, which began on February 2.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 85-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The pattern lacks obvious ambiguity. It’s quite clear. Where problems might arise is with the degree of the waves, where each one stands in the fractal structure of the price movements.

For most aspects of those movements Elott Wave Theory has a lot of pointers that help the analyst find the path. Sadly, the degree is not one of them: Is this wave one degree lower than the recent peak? Or is it two degrees lower? Or even three? The answer is, “Who knows?”, with a shrug.

The only indicator is the rule of proportionality, and it is subjective. What’s proportional to my eye may be wildly disproportionate in yours. And so it goes with every chart, that perpetual ambiguity in identifying each wave’s degree.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses, updated with today’s reanalysis.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descending wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 5, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, coming close to the overnight high, 6069.

This morning’s Elliott Wave Theory analysis saw high as the beginning a the final wave of a small downward correction. That correction is a declining C wave, so why is the price rising?

That small C wave — C{-19} on the chart — has the usual ups and downs of any price movement. Wave C{-19} will have three subwaves. The overnight decline was the first subwave, wave A{-20}. The session rise is the second subwave, wave B{-20}. A declining final subwave, wave C{-20}, comes next.

Can a C wave move above the prior B-wave’s end point? There’s not a rule against it in the theory. So unless it was a huge rise above, I’ll treat in the analysis as normal.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures hit 6069 in the minute before the closing bell sounded and then began to drop, so far reaching 5987 during the overnight session

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis of the chart shows the same tangle of corrections now underway, each a different degree from the others.

To try to gain some clarity, I shall discuss the layout of the fractal tangle using the full labelling that I use on the chart: A wave number followed by a subscript in brackets showng the distance of the wave’s degree from the Intermediate degree, which began in December 2018.

Each day’s chart tends to have a big question demanding an answer. Today’s question is whether wave B{-19} ended at the end-of-session peak — 6069 — and wave C{-19} begin, or is B{-19} still underwqy. The waves at the {-19} level when the fractal structure are subwaves of wave C{-18}, a declining wave with wave {B-17}, also declining. All of the corrections are happening with wave 4{-16}, an upward correction that began on June 13.

The answer to the question, has wave C{-19} begun, depends in part on the nature of the {-19}-level correction. Most commonly, corrections come in two varieties, a ZigZag or a Flat. If it’s a ZigZag, wave A{-19} has five subwaves. If a Flat, then three subwaves.

Wave A{-19} was a powerful downward movement, and such movements often look like a straight line on the chart. Shrink the bars on the chart enough, however, and the pattern becomes clear: The A-wave has five subwaves, making it a ZigZag.

A B-wave in a ZigZag, according to an Elliott Wave Theory rule, never moves beyond the starting point of wave A. In a Flat, it must retrace 90% or more of wave A.

Wave B{-19} on this chart has completed three waves and is well short of a 90% retracement, and so its possible that wave B ended at the end of yesterday’s session, at 6069. And I’ve marked the chart to conform.

It’s not 100% certain. The price could reverse and rise to the 90% retracement mark. Nonetheless, the analysis is consistent with the chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 85-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? See above.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses, updated with the today’s reanalysis.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15] is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descendng wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 4, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the opening bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, from the 5950s to the 6040s, taking back about half of the decline that began on January 31.

Elliott Wave Theory: I’m counting the rise as the 2nd of three subwaves — wave B — within a declining larger C wave, which is the final subwave, wave C, within a 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading overnight with a 683-point downward gap and then traded sideways, bouncing between the 5930s and the 5980s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The going-nowhere movement is a correction within wave C, the final wave of a 4th-wave downward correction that began on January 24. The downward correction’s parent wave is declining wave B, the middle wave, of a larger upward correction that began on January 13.

All of this correcting is part of a 3rd-wave downtrend that began on December 16, 2024, a major peak in the fractal structure of the chart that triggered a switch to a large 4th-wave down correction that is now in its initial subwave, wave A.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 75-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? This is word-for-word from yesterday, and may be with us for a while longer. What I’ve labeled as wave A{-18} may in fact turn out to be a subwave of that wave, one degree lower.. If I squint real hard, wave A{-18} appears to have five subwaves, making it the Zig-zag type of correction. But the rising corrective wavesw ithin it are extremely small, so they don’t really match the size of the parent wave. So for now I’m sticking with the chart as labeled. Time will tell if that was the correct choice.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses, updated with the today’s reanalysis.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15] is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its middle subwave, descendng wave B{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave B{-18}

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• B{-17} (unnamed), 1/24/2025, 6162.25 (down)
• C{-18} (unnamed), 1/31/2025, 6147.75 (down)
• B{-18} (unnamed), 1/27/2025, 5948 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.