Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update July 13, 2017: DAL moved little after earnings were published. The profit largely came from a decline in implied volatility. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 0.7% over one day, or a +256% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.1% yield on debit for a +12,081% annual rate.

---

DAL publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 31st percentile of its annual range and the peek of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

6/12 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered a new position on DAL and analyzed TSM for entry but declined the trade. I exited positions in FAST and XOP.

An exit order on KBH remains unfilled, and I shall keep it alive until the market close.

Read More »

Fastenal Co. (FAST)

Update 7/12/2017: FAST whipsawed dramatically in the first hour of trading after earnings were published, gapping to the upside and then falling like a rock in a movement that spanned $5. I exited at 29.1% of maximum potential profit.

During the lifespan of my position, less than a day, shares declined by 0.9%, or a -319% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.1% yield on debit for a +14,991% annual rate

---

FAST publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FAST’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

7/11 – 3:35 p.m. New York time

PEP exit order filled. 

7/11 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered a new position on FAST and made no exits. I have three exit attempts active as we approach the closing bell: PEP, XLK and XOP,

Read More »

Grupo Televisa S.A.B. (TV)

TV publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TV’s IV stands in the 52nd percentile of its annual range and the 92nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)

Update 7/11/2017: PEP fell after earnings were published and I exited at 24.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 1.2% over one day, or a 449% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.0% yield on debit for a 12,045% annual rate.

---

PEP publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 17%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PEP’s IV stands in the 61st percentile of its annual range and the 82nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

7/10 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered a position on PEP and analyzed TV as a new position but rejected it. I exited FB and have live exit orders on  XLK and XOP that have so far not been filled.

Read More »

Prices move to the center of economic reporting this week, the consumer price index on Friday and the producer price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two other major reports punctuate the week, both on Friday: Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies twice on Capitol Hill about monetary policy, On Wednesday before the House Committee on Financial services and on Thursday before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Each hearing begins at 10 a.m.

Read More »

7/7 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I exited WGO for a loss; see the analysis for results. I have two exit orders active for the final half hour of trading on XLK and KBH and shall update their analyses with results if they are filled. No new positions.

Read More »

7/6 – 3:20 p.m. New York time

I neither entered nor exited positions today. I have placed two orders to exit at my target prices for XLK and KBH, neither of which has been filled with 40 minutes to go before the closing bell. If either is filled, I shall update the analysis with results after the market close.

Read More »