Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)

Update 5/18/2017: WMT gapped to the upside after earnings were published and then retreated a bit. I exited at $1.98, or 16.5% of maximum potential profit, below my 25%  target.

This was very much a gut feel exit, an approach I’m quite comfortable with, given the human brain’s excellent pattern recognition skills. It seemed likely to me, about 10 minutes after the opening bell, that a reversal to the upside, toward less profit, was imminent, although there was no rational basis that I could point to. The next 30 minutes provided my hunch to be correct.

At exit shares had shown a net rise of 1.8% over one day, or a +657% annual rate. The options position produced a +19.7% yield on debit for a +7,189% annual rate.

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WMT publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

WMT’s IV stands in the 53rd percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)

Update 5/22/2017: CSCO gapped sharply to the downside after earnings were published, and then traded sideways for three days. I exited for a loss as the options approached expiration.

Shares declined by 7.0% over five days, or a -555% annual rate. Tue options position produced a 49.4% loss on debit for a -3,603% annual rate.

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CSCO publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 22%, which is 1.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CSCO’s IV stands in the 66th percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)

Update 5/18/2017: BABA gapped sharply to the downside and then partially recovered. I judged it had gone about as far as it could in recovering for the near term, and I exited for a debit of $5.31, or 15.2% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 2.9%  at the time I exited, or a -1,047% annual rate. The options position produced a 17.9% yield on debit for a +6,530% annual rate.

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BABA publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BABA’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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5/18 – 3 p.m. New York time

I entered four new positions today: BABA, CSCO, WMT and LB.

I exited four positions: JACK, SINA, URBN and TGT.

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Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN)

Update 5/17/2017: URBN fell for five days straight before earnings were published and fell again the day after. I exited at a debit of $1.26, or 40% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by -3.0% over one day, or a -1,086% annual rate. The options position produced a 66.7% yield on debit for a +24,333% annual rate.

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URBN publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 56%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

URBN’s IV stands in the 78th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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Target Corp. (TGT)

Update 5/17/2017: TGT rose sharply after earnings were published and rapidly declined to near where it closed the day before, allowing for an exit at a debit of $2.07, or 31.1% of maximum potential profit.

Shares produced a net rise of 2.1% in a day, or a +757% annual rate. The options position produced a 45.2% yield on debit for a +16,478% annual rate.

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TGT publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TGT’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and the its most recent broad movement.

Note: The previously posted analysis was done on the monthlys grid expiring June 16. This trade, on the May 26 weeklys, provides a much improved result.

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Jack in the Box Inc. (sym)

Update 5/17/2017: JACK gapped sharply to the upside and then retraced part of the rise. I exited for a loss with a debit of $9.50.

Shares produced a net rise of 7.6% over a day, or a +2,789% annual rate. The options position produced a -24.7% loss on debit for a -9,029% annual rate.

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JACK publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 31 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 37%, which is 3.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JACK’s IV stands in the 78th percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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5/16 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered three positions today: JACK, TGT and URBN.

I exited one: HD.

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SPRRA S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP)

Update 5/22/2017: XOP declinedafter entry for four days as then rose for three, ending close to where it began. I exited as earnings approached at 4.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.7% over seven days, or a +35% annual rate. The options position produced a 5.0% yield on debit for a +261% annual rate.

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XOP meets my implied volatility criteria for further consideration as a trade.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 26.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

XOP’s IV stands in the 36th percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

OAS publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 53%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

OASIS’s IV stands in the 32nd percentile of its annual range and the 70th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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