6/29 – 3 p.m. New York time

I entered two new positions, MU and NKE, and exited one position, WBA.

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Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA)

Update 6/29/2017: WBA gapped sharply upward after earnings were published and quickly dropped back close to the prior day’s final price. I exited a bit shy of my target price, judging that I now had more to lose than to win by waiting.

Shares showed a net rise of 1.2% from my entry to exit, about a day,, for a +419% annual rate. The options position produced a 21.1% yield on debit for a +7,702% annual rate.

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WBA publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on July 7.

Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 2.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

WBA’s IV stands in the 78th percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)

Update 7/17/2017: STZ rose sharply after earnings were published. With no return to profitability in sight, I exited for a loss as the options entered their week of expiration.

Shares rose by 7.6% over 19 days, or a +146% annual rate. The options position produced a 22.6% loss on debit for a -435% annual rate.

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STZ publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 23 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

STZ’s IV stands in the 75th percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG)

CAG publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 23 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CAG’s IV stands in the 27th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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6/28 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered positions in STZ and WBA, and exited a position in PAYX. I analyzed CAG but declined the trade.

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Paychex Inc. (PAYX)

Update 6/28/2017: PAYX gapped to the downside by about $2 after earnings were published, and then rose to regain about half of the decline. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit, my target.

Shares showed a net decline of 2.2% over my holding period of less than a day, or a -787% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.3% yield on debit for a +12,167% annual rate.

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PAYX publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PAYX’s IV stands in the 81st percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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General Mills Inc. (GIS)

GIS publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GIS’s IV stands in the 58th percentile of its annual range and the 54th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (ETF) (XOP)

Update 7/12/2017: XOP traced a sideways zig-zag about $2 wide since I entered, in the last. In the last few days it has toyed with my target level but never quite made it. To clear space for other trades and to remove risk, I exited at 22.2% of maximum potential profit. My target was 25%.

Shares rose by 1.3% over 15 days, or a +33% annual rate. The options position produced a +28.6% yield on debit for a +695% annual rate.

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XOP has halted its decline with implied volatility still relatively high. I shall look at it as a non-directional trade on the expectation that the price will fluctuate sideways for awhile before making its next move.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

XOP’s IV stands in the 39th  percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/27 3:20 p.m. New York time

I entered two new positions, PAYX and XOP, exited my position on DRI and rolled FB to a later expiration.

I analyzed GIS but declined to take the trade.

I am attempting to exit KRE but the order has yet to be filled. I shall leave it active until the closing bell.

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KB Home (KBH)

Update 7/14/2017; KBH rose after earnings were published and thenmoved into a sideways pattern, repeatedly moving into profitability but staying short of my target of 25% of maximum potential profit. As expiration approached I exited at 16.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 4.7% over 18 days, or a +96% annual rate. The options position produced a +20.4% yield on debit for a +414% annual rate.

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KBH publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 25 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 3.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KBH’s IV stands in the 43rd percentile of its annual range and the 95th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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