The week’s two major reports will be published on Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m. New York time and industrial production statistics at 9:15 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department international capital report at 4 p.m.
Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).
Two of the Federal Reserve glitterati take to the podium during the week: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester, a Federal Open Market Committee alternate, on Thursday and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, who doesn’t hold an FOMC position this year, on Friday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 13, 2017