Live: Monday, May 15, 2017

5/15 – 3 p.m. New York time

I entered four new positIons: TJX, HD, SINA and XOP. I analyzed OAS but rejected the trade, and declined to analyze XRT as its implied volatility fell below my 50th percentile cut-off point in relation to its most recent broad movement.

I exited six positions: BAC, IBM, JWN, M, NVDA and SNAP. I also partially exited LB.

5/15 – 1 p.m. New York time

I have completed my exits for the day, closing six positions in their entirety and doing a partial closure on one. I have updated with results the analyses of the six full exits, which are BAC, IBM, JWN, M, NVDA and SNAP. The partial exit, LB, will expire without value after Friday’s close, as will my earlier zombie position YELP, and I shall update their analyses when the positions have fully closed.

5/15 – 9:50 a.m. New York time

TJX, HD and SINA qualify for consideration as potential earnings plays. OAS also has the implied volatility to support a trade, but the open interest on its options grid for the JUN series is a bit spotty. I shall look at it later and make a final decision on whether to analyze it.

Also, two exchange-traded funds qualify for a further look: XRT and XOP.

The MAY series of monthly options trades for the last time on Friday, meaning that its time to close out any remaining positions, today for those that are unambiguously in the money, and therefore loss-making, and by Tuesday for those that stand a chance of moving into profitability.

The unconditional exits, without hope of recovery, are BAC, IBM, JWN, M and NVDA.

Those requiring more analysis are SNAP and LB. YELP is a zombie position that will expire without further action.

5/14 – 10:10 a.m. New York time

Three symbols qualify for analysis as potential earnings plays on Monday, having enough liquidity and also sufficiently high implied volatility both in relation to the annual range and the most recent trending movement. They are TJX, HD and SINA.

Six others are liquid enough, but they have low implied volatility: EOG, OAS, TSO, AGN, SLW and VRX. Unless they improve dramatically on Monday, they will be off the table.

Although my preference is to use the nearest weekly options that are at least five days from expiration, I decided to also look at prospects lacking weeklys: TJX and SINA on the Monday calendar. The monthlys are more than 30 days away from expiration, which increases the holding period of my positions. On the other hand, it gives me greater choice of symbols and also a greater degree of time diversification, always a good thing.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 14-15, 2017

 

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