Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI)

Update 6/27/2017: DRI gapped to the upside after earnings were published but quickly shrinking the chasm to below $3. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 3.3% over my holding period of a bit less than 24 hours, or a +1,185% annual rate. The options positoin produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +12,108% annual rate.

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DRI publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 25 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 37%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DRI’s IV stands at the peak of both annual range and its most recent broad movement.

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6/26 – 3 p.m. New York time

I entered with new positions, both coinciding with earnings announcements: DRI and KBH.  I exited six positions: ACN, BBBY, MSFT, NFLX, RHT and BBRY.

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A series of reports this week hits the economic fundamentals: The Gross Domestic Product, a third estimate for the 1st quarter, on Thursday, international trade in goods on Wednesday and personal income and outlays on Friday, and durable goods orders on Monday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

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SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

Update 7/3/2017: KRE rose for four days after I entered the position, settling into a three-day sideways movement in unprofitable territory. I exited the week the options were due to expire.

Shares rose by 4.34% over 10 days, or a +158% annual rate. The options position produced a -32.7% loss on debit for a -1,195% annual rate.

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KRE has sufficiently high implied volatility to qualify for analysis and possibly a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on July 7.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KRE’s IV stands in the 36th percentile of its annual range and the 60th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/23 – 2:50 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered a new position on KRE and exited positions on NVDA, ORCL and QQQ. I attempted to exit RHT but couldn’t get a fill I liked, so I’ll try again on Monday.

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Facebook Inc, (FB)

Update 7/10/2017: FB rose for two days after I entered the position and then fell sharply for more than a week before beginning a two-day rise (so far) that brought the position to my target price. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

I reached that point by rolling the position forward, as noted in the earlier update below, The results calculation is based on the entire series.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.06% over 18 days, or a +1% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +672% annual rate.

Update 6/27/2017: I rolled FB forward to a later expiration, leaving the strike prices in the structure unchanged.

The roll cost $0.23 for the exit and brought in a $4.75 premium from the new position, for a net premium for the series of $4.98.

I shall defer calculation of results until the series is complete.

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FB shows high implied volatility, making it a candidate for non-directional trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on July 7.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FB’s IV stands in the 38th percentile of its annual range and the 59th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Finish Line Inc. (FINL)

Sonic Corp. (SONC)

FINL publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell and SONC on Thursday after the closing bell.

Neither symbol has weekly options. The nearest monthly series expires on July 21, which is 28 days out,

As busy as it has been, rather than risk tying up funds for the longer period, I shall forego these two trades without a full analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2017

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BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)

Update 6/26/2017: BBRY gapped sown sharply after earnings were published and continued to trade low the day after. I exited at 3% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 8.0% over four days, or a -726% annual rate. The options position produced a 3.1% yield on debit for a +279% annual rate.

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BBRY publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 30.

Implied volatility stands at 63%, which is 6.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BBRY’s IV stands at the peak of its annual range and the 97th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

Update 6/26/2017: Shares gapped sharply to the downside after earnings were published and stayed low the next day. I exited for a loss.

Shares declined by 15.9% over four days, or a -1,451% annual rate. The options position produced a -46.6% loss on debit for a -4,252 annual rate.

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BBBY publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 30.

Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BBBY’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

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6/22 – 3:45 p.m. New York time

And the outcomes for the day. I entered three new positions, earnings plays on BBBY and BBRY and a non-directional trade on FB unrelated to earnings. I exited three positions, AAPL, CCL and HAIN, each for a profit. I declined to trade FINL and SONC due to the absence of weekly options.

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