P Analysis

Pandora Media Inc. (P)

Update 5/9/2017: P declined sharply immediately after earnings were published and I exited at 31.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 2.0% over one day, or a -742% annul rate. The options position produced a 48.7% yield on debit for a +17,033% annual rate.


P publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 54%, which is 6.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

P’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 66th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

OAS Analysis

Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

Update 5/12/2017: OAS rose after earnings were published and then moved sideways. I found it difficult in repeated attempts to get a fill, even when my bid was beyond the midpoint toward the ask side of the bid/ask spread. As expiration approached I decided to meet the ask of $0.77, even though it meant exiting at 14.4% of maximum potential profit, below my target.

Shares declined by 2.5% over four days, or a -229% annual rate. The options position produced a +16.9% yield on debit for a +1,541% annual rate


OAS publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 59%, which is 6.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

OAS’s IV stands in the 38th percentile of its annual range and the 59th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Live: Monday, May 8, 2017

5/8 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

I entered new positions on OAS and P timed to coincide with earnings, and exited my position on AMD for a loss.

I attempted an exit of KRE, but the order has not yet been filled and I don’t expect it to be. I shall post an update if it should be filled by the closing bell.

I analyzed PAA but declined to take the trade, and

Read More »

TDG Analysis

TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG)

TDG publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 44%, which is 4.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TDG’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

ATVI Analysis

Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI)

Update 5/5/2017: ATVI gapped to the upside and then retreated somewhat after earnings were published, moving beyond my target and allowing me to exit at 41.6% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 1.6% over one day, or a +575% annual rate. The options position produced a +71.4% yield on debit for a +26,043 annual rate


 

ATVI publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on May 19. Although at this point I would prefer the May 12 weeklys, which expire in eight days, the earlier series lacks sufficiently open interest to support a trade.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ATVI’s IV stands in the 72nd percentile of its annual range and the 82nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

TSLA Analysis

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

TSLA publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 12.

Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TSLA’s IV stands in the 40th percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

FB Analysis

Facebook Inc. (FB)

Update 5/4/2017: FB gapped to the downside after earnings were published, bringing it slightly below the strike prices of the short options and bringing the gain to 34.6% of maximum potential profit, well above my target of 25%. I exited.

Shares declined by -1.5% over one day, or a -557% annual rate. The options position produced a 53.0% yield on debit for a +19,349% annual rate.


 

FB publishes earnings on Wednesday after the opening bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on May 12.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FB’s IV stands in the 059th percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »