5/3 – 3:20 p.m. New York time
Today’s outcomes: I entered a new position on FB and exited positions on AAPL and GILD, updating their analyses with results.
I analyzed TSLA but rejected the trade.
KRE has an exit order at its target price and I shall update its analysis after the close if it is filled, which seems unlikely at this point.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Update 5/3/2017: GILD fell sharply after earnings were published and then traced a zig-zag pattern only slightly above its low in the decline. I exited a 24.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by7 2.9% over one day, or a -1,042% annual rate. The options positoin produced a +33.2% yield on debit for a +12,114% annual rate
GILD publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
GILD’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Update 5/3/2017: AAPL declined rapidly after earnings were published and then, just as rapidly, reclaimed most of the loss, ending up shortly below the short-option strike options. A sharp drop in implied volatility broad the position to my target price, and I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net decline of 1.4% over one day, or a -493% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.4% yield on debit for a +12,197% annual rate.
AAPL publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
AAPL’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 15%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
PFE’s IV stands well below my standards in its annual range, at the 5th percentile.. Relative to its most recent broad movement, volatility stands in the 53rd percentile, which meets my standards.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
Update 5/8/2017: AMD gapped dramatically to the downside after earnings were published and never returned to profitability. I exited as options expiration neared.
Shares declined by 25.5% over seven days, mostly on the first day of the period, for a -1,330% annual rate. The options position produced a -100.0% loss on debit for a -5,214% annual rate.
AMD publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 12.
Implied volatility stands at 64%, which is 6.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
AMD’s IV stands in the 44th percentile of its annual range and the 51st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
The Federal Open Market Committee ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement that may include a further increase in the federal funds rate.
The Labor Dept. will publish its monthly report on the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Expect early guessing of the top numbers based on the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.
Other major reports for the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Update 4/28/2017: CVX rose sharply after earnings wee published and then dropped back to near the short options strike prices, allowing me to exit at 29.5% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.8% over one day, or a +288% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.9% yield on debit for a +15,306% annual rate.
CVX publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CVX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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