NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

Update 6/23/2017: NVDA traded within a range of less than $5, allowing time decay and declining implied volatility to bring the position to profitability. I exited at 21.3% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 1.4% over three days, or a -169% annual rate. The options position produced a 27.0% yield on debit for a +3,289% annual rate.

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NVDA has sufficiently high implied volatility to qualify for analysis and possibly a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 30.

Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NVDA’s IV stands in the 47th percentile of its annual range and the 67th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Update 6/26/2017: NFLX rose steadily after my entry into the position. I exited for a loss as expiration approached.

Shares rose by 3.6% over six days, or an annual rate of 217%. The options position produced an 18.4% loss on debit for a -1,120% annual rate.

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NFLX has sufficiently high implied volatility to qualify for analysis and possibly a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 30.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NFLX’s IV stands at the 58th percentileof its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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6/20 – 3:35 p.m. New York time

I entered seven new positions today. Four were earnings plays: ADBE, FDX, RHT and WGO. Three were direction neutral plays with high implied volatility: MSFT, NFLX and NVDA

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6/19 – 9:10 p.m. New York time

I have updated the KR analysis with results.

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Two housing reports lead the week: Existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday, each at 10 a.m. New York time

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6/16 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

Outcomes:

I exited FB and KRE for a profit and NFLX for a loss, and rolled AAPL and QQQ forward to a later expiration. This completes my exit from positions that expire next Friday, June 23.

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Finisar Corp. (FNSR)

Update 6/19/2017: FNSR gapped sharply to the upside the trading session after earnings were published and then retraced a significant portion of that rise the next day. Rather than risk a move that would make the position unprofitable, I exited at 19.9% of maximum potential profit, which is less than my 25% target.

Shares showed a net rise of 7.5% over five days, or a +545% annual rate. The options position produced a 24.9% yield on debit for a +1,812% annual rate.

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FNSR publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 36 days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 65%, which is 5.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FNSR’s IV stands in the 92nd percentile of its annual range and the 82nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/15 – 3 p.m. New York time

Outcomes:

I entered a new position on FNSR and exited one on NVDA.

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SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

Update 6/16/2017: KRE traded sideways during its short lifespan, and I exited at 4.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 0.5% over two days, or a -83% annual rate. The options position produced a 5.2% yield on debit for a +946% annual rate.

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KRE stands at a high level of implied volatility compared to its most recent trend and so is worth looking at more closely as a potential trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 23.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KRE’s IV stands in the  32nd percentile of its annual range and the 54th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Kroger Co. (KR)

Update 6/19/2017: KR fell sharply after earnings were published, with two large opening gaps in a row, the first the day before Amazon.com announced its purchase of Whole Foods Market and the second day after the announcement. As the grocery sector staggered with shock,  rather than prolong the pain in the face of small odds against a return to profitability, I exited weeks before expiration.

Shares declined by 25.3% over five days, or a -1,848 annual rate. The options position produced a 50.8% loss on debit for a -3,705% annual rate.

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KR publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 37 days hence, on June 23.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KR’s IV stands in the peak of its annual range and the 71st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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