Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Update 6/16/2017: Tech stocks, NFLX among them, began a sharp decline the day after I entered into the position, rapidly carrying the price below the profit zone. With a week to go before expiration, I attempted to roll the position forward for a small premium in hopes of a partial recovery, but was unable to get a fill. I instead exited for a loss.

When I entered implied volatility had been rising for a month, coming off of a small pop to the downside after earnings were published, within a context of a price uptrend that had been running for nearly a year. There was no visible trigger for the decline, which hit much of the tech sector.

NFLX shares declined by 7.5% over eight days, or a -341% annual rate. The options position produced a -41% loss o debit for a -1,892% annual rate.

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NFLX has sufficiently high implied volatility in relation to its most recent trend and in comparison to the VIX to support a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on June 23.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NFLX’s IV stands in the 29th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY)

Update 6/9/2017: PAY declined sharply after earnings were published and then rose, remaining well below it’s prior close. The price remained within the zone of profitability throughout the movement. I exited during the bounce, at 37.5% of maximum potential profit, above my 25% target.

Shares showed a net decline of 4.4% over the day I held the position, or a -1,617% annual rate. The options position produced a 60.0% yield on debit for a +21,900% annual rate.

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PAY publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PAY’s IV stands in the 62nd percentile of its annual range and the 99th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/8 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered two positions today, an earnings play on PAY and a time-decay position on NFLX. I exited SJM for a profit.

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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Update 6/12/2017: MSFT, along with other tech stocks, began to decline at entry on June 7, and I exited for a loss on the fourth day of decline as expiration approached.

Shares fell by 4.1% over five days, or a -299% annual rate. The options position produced a -40.9% loss on debit for a -2,986% annual rate.

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MSFT has sufficiently high implied volatility and liquidity to qualify as a trade.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MSFT’s IV stands in the 54th percentile of its annual range and the 72nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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SJM Smucker Co. (SJM)

Update 6/8/2017: SJM gapped sharply higher after earnings were published and then fell below its pre-earnings close I exited on the the way down slightly above my entry price, at 36% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net increase of 0.6% from my entry to exit the next day, or a 210% annual rate. The options position produced a 56.4% yield on debit for a +20,566% annual rate.

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SJM publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is  2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

SJM’s IV stands in the  59th percentile of its annual range and in the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/7 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I entered two new position today, an earnings play on SJM and a volatility play on MSFT, and exited two, JKS and PLAY.

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Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc. (PLAY)

Update 6/7/2017: PLAY rose after earnings were published. However, my exit order went through one minute after the opening bell, and the price was up only one cent from its level when I entered. It subsequently rose by several dollars. Implied volatility declined sharply, and the exit was at 35.9% of maximum potential profit.

The annual rate of the one cent change in the share price works out to a 0.05% annual rate of change. The options position produced a 56.1% yield on debit for a +20,468% annual rate.

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PLAY publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PLAY’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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Ambarella Inc. (AMBA)

Update 6/9/2017; AMBA gapped to the downside after earnings were published and declined only slightly more over the next two days, when I exited for a loss.

Shares declined by 12.5% over the three days, or a -1,523% annual rate. Tye options position produced a 35.4% loss on debit for a -4,306% annual rate.

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AMBA publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 51%, which is 4.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

AMBA’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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6/6 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

I entered positions on AMBA and PLAY, and exited positions on CSIQ and PVH.

I placed an order on JKS, but it has not yet been filled.

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Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)

Update 6/6/2017: CSIQ opened low after earnings were published and then rose back to near the prior day’s close, with falling volatility allowing me to exit near my target, at 24.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise during the day I held the position of 0.1%, or a +43% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.0% yield on debit for a +12,028% annual rate.

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CSIQ publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 59%, which is six times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CSIQ’s IV stands in the 26th percentile of its annual range and the 77th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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