3/9 – 7 p.m. New York time.

Neither of my attempted exits were filled.

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I entered no new positions today.

I placed exit orders on my ADSK, CRM and CIEN positions. None has been filled. If any are, I shall update Outcomes after the closing bell. ADSK and CIEN appear unlikely to be filled. CRM is within the realm of possibility.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017

 

One difficulty with Private Trader is that there are so many housekeeping posts, from Prospects the night before to Outcomes at the end of the trading day, that the analyses tend to get lost.

To simplify the reader’s view, beginning Thursday, March 9, I am changing the Private Trader posting schedule. Rather than a separate post for Prospects, Agenda and Outcomes, I shall do a single post and update it throughout the day.

The headline will be in the form:

Live: Thursday, March 9, 2017

with new updates appearing at the top of the file.

In addition to taking up less blog space, the new format will be less rigid, freeing me to post on trading subjects that don’t fit well into the prospects, agenda, outcomes progression.

Each update will be accompanied by notification on Twitter

https://twitter.com/TimBovee

and Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader/

just as posts are now.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017

 

No new positions in sight today.

I’ve entered exit orders at my target prices on CRM and CIEN, but neither has been filled yet.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017

 

I have no prospective new positions awaiting my analysis on Wednesday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 7, 2017

 

I have entered a position on CIEN timed to coincide within earnings announcement.

I am attempting to exit CRM at my target price, but the order has not been filled. I shall leave it active until the closing bell. If it is filled, then I shall update Outcomes.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 7, 2017

 

Ciena Corp. (CIEN)

Update 3/21/2017: CIEN gapped down sharply immediately after earnings were published and declined further for five trading days before settling on a plateau. I exited at 26.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 6.4% over 14 days, or a -166% annual rate. The options position produced a 36.8% yield on debit for a +595% annual rate.

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CIEN publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 45 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is  4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CIEN’s IV stands in the 55th percentile of its annual range and the 76th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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I shall analyze CIEN today as a potential earnings play.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 7, 2017

 

CIEN is my one prospect for a new position on Tuesday. It is timed to coincide with an earnings announcement.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 6, 2017

 

I am wrapping up trading early today in order to meet a commitment.

I entered no new positions today but exited two.

In exiting  GM and RRC today, I completed my March options, except for remnant of SU, which is so deep into profitable territory that it in untradeable.

An order to exit CRM at my target price has not yet been filled. If it should be, I shall update Outcomes after the closing bell.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 6, 2017