5/16 – 3:10 p.m. New York time
I entered three positions today: JACK, TGT and URBN.
I exited one: HD.
Author: Tim Bovee
XOP Analysis
SPRRA S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP)
Update 5/22/2017: XOP declinedafter entry for four days as then rose for three, ending close to where it began. I exited as earnings approached at 4.8% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.7% over seven days, or a +35% annual rate. The options position produced a 5.0% yield on debit for a +261% annual rate.
XOP meets my implied volatility criteria for further consideration as a trade.
I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 26.
Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
XOP’s IV stands in the 36th percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
OAS Analysis
Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)
OAS publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on June 16.
Implied volatility stands at 53%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
OASIS’s IV stands in the 32nd percentile of its annual range and the 70th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
TJX Analysis
The TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)
Update 5/22/2017: TJX gapped to the downside after earnings were published and then crept back up to about the midpoint of the gap. That partial recovery and the workings of time decay brought the position to profitability. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net decline of 2.4% over seven days, or a -123% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +1,738% annual rate.
TJX publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on June 16.
Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
TJX’s IV stands in the 74th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.
SINA Analysis
SINA Corp. (SINA)
Update 5/17/2017: SINA gapped sharply to the upside immediately after earnings were published, retracing a portion of the rise the day after, allowing for a slightly improved, although still losing, exit at a $10.20 debit.
Shares showed a net rise of 7.6% over two days, or a +1,395% annual rate. The options position produced a -37.9% loss on debit for a -6,924% annual rate.
SINA publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on June 16.
Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is four times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
SINA’s IV stands in the 57th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.
HD Analysis
The Home Depot Inc. (HD)
Update 5/16/2017: HD gapped to the upside after earnings were published, and I exited for $3.67, or 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares rose by 1.4% from my entry a day earlier, or a +517% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +12,134% annual rate.
HD publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 26.
Implied volatility stands at 22%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
HD’s IV stands in the 60th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Monday, May 15, 2017
5/15 – 3 p.m. New York time
I entered four new positIons: TJX, HD, SINA and XOP. I analyzed OAS but rejected the trade, and declined to analyze XRT as its implied volatility fell below my 50th percentile cut-off point in relation to its most recent broad movement.
I exited six positions: BAC, IBM, JWN, M, NVDA and SNAP. I also partially exited LB.
The Week Ahead: Housing and industry
The week’s two major reports will be published on Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m. New York time and industrial production statistics at 9:15 a.m.
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