GameStop Corp. (GME)

Update 4/10/2017: GME gapped sharply to the downside after earnings were published and never returned to profitability. I exited for a loss 12 days before the position expired.

Shares declined b6 8.4% over 18 days, or a -170% annual rate. The options position produced a -9.1% loss on debit for a -183% annual rate.

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GME publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 29 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 43%, which is 3.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GME’s IV stands in the 62nd percentile of its annual range and the 60th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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3/23 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

I am wrapping up my trading day, having entered two positions, GME and MU, and exited none.

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3/22 – 2:40 p.m. New York time

I exited two position today, each for a profit. They are FDX and HTZ.

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NIKE Inc. (NKE)

Update 3/28/2017: NKE gappd downward after publishing earnings and then in ensuing days gradually retraced more than half of the loss. I exited at my target of 25% of maximum potential profit.

Since I entered the position, shares have seen a net loss of 3.2%, or a -165% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +1,730% annual rate.

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NKE publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NKE’s IV stands in the 54th percentile of its annual range and the 59th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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FedEx Corp. (FDX)

Update 3/22/2017: FDX rose slightly and implied volatility declined sharply on the first trading day after earnings were published, bringing the options above my target of 25% of maximum potential profit. I exited.

Shares rose by 0.05% over one day, or a 19% annual rate. The options position produced a 27.9% yield on debit for a +10,192% annual rate

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FDX publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FEX’s IV stands in the 73rd percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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3/21 – 3:05 p.m. New York time

Today’s outcomes: I have entered positions on FDX and NKE and exited positions on CIEN, DG and WMT.

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3/20 – 3:27 p.m. New York time

My prospect, GIS, never reached sufficiently high implied volatility to support a trade. My exit order on DG has not yet been filled, although I shall leave it active until the closing  bell.

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3/18 – 10:10 a.m. New York time

The final options in my SU iron fly position expired, wrapping up the position for a loss. I have updated the analysis with results.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 18, 2017

 

Big ticket purchases and the housing sales will punctuate the trading week

Durable goods orders covers purchases with a useful life of three years or more. The statistics will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The housing sales data comes in two installments: Existing homes sales, the greater part of the market, on Wednesday and new home sales on Thursday, each at 10 a.m.

Also out during the week, the Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash report on Friday at 9:45 a.m.

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3/17 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I am wrapping up a very slow trading day: No new positions and no exits. I shall leave my two exit orders, on DG and CIEN, active until the closing bell, and shall update after the close if I get a fill on either.

SU’s official expiration is on Saturday, and I shall post results on that day.

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