Tuesday’s Agenda

February 7, 2017 Tim Bovee

Implied volatility on GILD has fallen in early trading and it no longer qualifies for an analysis.

Tuesday’s Prospects

February 7, 2017 Tim Bovee

I shall analyze GILD on Tuesday as a potential earnings play.

MDLZ qualifies on liquidity and options-grid coverage but falls short on implied volatility which stands in the lower half of both the annual range and the most recent broad move. I shall check it again after the opening bell, but unless IV improves, I shall do no further analysis of MDLZ.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 6, 2017

Monday’s Outcomes

February 6, 2017 Tim Bovee

I entered positions on GM and BP timed to coincide with earnings announcements.

I exited a position on XOM the day before the stock went ex-dividend in order to ensure my position wasn’t assigned.

I am attempting to exit FB, LMT and QCOM at my target prices and shall update this post after the market close if my orders are filled.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 6, 2017

BP Analysis

February 6, 2017February 27, 2017 Tim Bovee7 Comments

BP p.l.c. (BP)

Update 2/27/2017: BP fell for a week after earnings were published, and then zig-zagged sideways. The declined in volatility and time decay did their work, and I was able to exit for a profit at 25.2% of maximum potential profit, slightly above my 25% target..

Shares fell by 4.8% over 21 days, or an 84% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.6% yield on debit for a +584% annual rate.

BP publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

GM Analysis

February 6, 2017March 6, 2017 Tim Bovee7 Comments

General Motors Co. (GM)

Update 3/6/2017: GM gapped higher after earnings were published, entering unprofitable territory, and remained thee until today, when a sharp morning drop combined with time decay as expiration approached allowed me to exit for a below-target profit, at 11.6% of maximum potential yield. My target was 25%.

Shares rose by 3.6% over28 days, or a +43% annual rate. The options position produced a +13.13% yield on debit for a +399% annual rate

GM publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAR series of options, which trades for the last time 39 days hence, on March 17.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GM’s IV stands in the 29th percentile of its annual range and the 67th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Monday’s Agenda

February 6, 2017 Tim Bovee

I shall analyze GM and BP as potential earnings plays today. BP’s options grid is not quite what I would like in terms of open interest at one key strike price, but I shall see if I can make it work.

The Week Ahead: International trade

February 5, 2017 Tim Bovee

Statistics on international trade, a political hot potato in the emerging administration of President Trump, will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.