The Week Ahead: Prices and retail

The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a religious holiday. Banks and the economic reporting machine will be open.

Two price indexes will be published during the week: The consumer price index on Friday and the producer final demand price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Also of note, retail sales on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a discussion with Susan Collins, dean of the Ford School in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday at 4:10 p.m.  The event will be streamed live here.

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Live: Friday, April 7, 2017

4/7 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

I exited ORCL for a profit and partially exited LOW in what will prove to be a loss.

As the first rumbles of earnings season approach, I shall have four — possibly five — new positions next week based on earnings announcements, a welcome oasis in the desert of inactivity that marks my off-season trading.

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The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade and a farewell

It’s jobs week again, one of the 12 milestones a year that provide a lagging view of a core metric of the state of the economy. The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, preceded by the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m., the latter providing a sneak preview of the main even that the markets pay attention to.

Other, lesser punctuations to the trading week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m., international trade on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March 15 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

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EWZ Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ)

Update 4/19/2017: EWZ continued a sideways correction that began in early March as time decay worked to bring the position to profitability. I exited at 18.2% of maximum profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 3.1% over 21 days, or a -54% annual rate. The options position produced a 22.3% yield on debit for a +387% annual rate.


 

EWZ, an exchange-traded fund, has sufficiently high implied volatility to support a trade for the nearer term, although it is quite low compared to the annual range.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 51 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

EWZ’s IV stands in the 25th percentile of its annual range and the 75th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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