The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade and a farewell

It’s jobs week again, one of the 12 milestones a year that provide a lagging view of a core metric of the state of the economy. The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, preceded by the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m., the latter providing a sneak preview of the main even that the markets pay attention to.

Other, lesser punctuations to the trading week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m., international trade on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March 15 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from employment at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from factory ordrs at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, international trade at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders at 10 .m.

Wednesday:  The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10 .m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims  at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo, an FOMC member who steps down this month after eight years, delivers a speech at Princeton University in New Jersey titled Departing Thoughts on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. The event will be streamed live here.

New York Fed Pres. William Dudley, also on the FOMC, has speeches scheduled for Monday and Friday.

An FOMC alternate, Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, has a public appearance on Monday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 2, 2017

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