COST Analysis

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)

Update 1/5/2017: COST rose sharply after earnings were published, retraced a bit, and then resumed its rise. I got out quickly for a loss, figuring there was no way this position would improve.

In part, my willingness to exit so rapidly was to free funds for earnings season, which begins next week.

Shares rose by 2.7% over two days, or a +494% annual rate. The options position produced a 17.1% loss on debit for a -3,129% annual rate

COST is showing implied volatility sufficiently high to support a trade.

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The Week Ahead: Jobs

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the New Year’s holiday, giving traders a short week culminating in a big report.

The employment situation report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A private-sector sneak preview, the ADP employment report, will be released on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

The Institute of Supply Managers manufacturing survey will be published on Tuesday at 10 a.m., and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Dec. 14 meeting, at which the Fed funds rate was raised by a 25 basis points.

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Tuesday’s Prospects

U.S. markets will be closed Monday, Jan. 2, in observance of the New Year’s holiday.

I have one prospect for Tuesday, COST, which has sufficiently high implied volatility to warrant a closer look.

Earnings season begins Jan. 9 with the publication of AA’s results and will continue for six weeks.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 31, 2016

Friday’s Prospects

There are no prospects that meet my criteria for further analysis on Friday. I don’t anticipate entering any new positions.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, Jan. 2, in observance of the New Year’s holiday.

Earnings season begins Jan. 9 with the publication of AA’s results.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 29, 2016

 

Thursday’s Outcomes

I have neither entered nor exited positions today. I’ve attempted exits of options spreads on AMAT and XLF, but with no success. If either is filled late in the trading day, then I shall post an update after the close.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, 12/29/2016

 

Earns Prospects 1/3-1/6

There are 37 companies publishing earnings for trading consideration the week of Jan. 3 through Jan. 6. (Monday, Jan. 2, is a market holiday.)

Of them, only one qualifies for further analysis.

action sym earns date am/mid/pm
1/4 WBA 1/5 am

Earnings season begins Jan. 9 with publication of results by AA and will continue for six weeks.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 29, 2016