3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures worked their way a bit higher during the session, into the 5320s. This morning’s analysis is unchanged. Wave 5{-6} within wave 3{-5} continues its rise. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 5310s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The low-degree uptrending 5th wave that began on March 15 continues and is in its 3rd of five subwaves.

When the 5th-wave uptrend is complete, it will also mean the end of the 3rd-wave uptrend one degree larger. A downward 4th-wave correction will follow.

Those waves are part of a three-level series of 3rd-waves, each of increasing degree, culminating with a rising 5th wave that began on October 13, 2023.

What are the alternatives? For a while now this section has noted the uncertainty of the wave degrees within the very large 5th wave — wave 5{-1} on the chart — that encompasses all of the smaller price movements happening since October last year. I’m dropping that notice, as things seems to be working out with the degrees as labeled. If there’s evidence to the contrary, then that alternative analysis will return.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:.

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.
• Wave 3{-5} is in its 5th subwave, wave 5{-6}
• Within wave 5{-6}, the middle subwave, wave 3{-7}, is underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 21, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose sharply when the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement, keeping rates steady.

The rise moved above the March 14 peak, resolving the ambiguity discussed in this morning’s analysis.

A low-degree 4th-wave downward correction — wave 4{-6} on the chart — ended on March 15, and a 5th-wave uptrend — wave 5{-6} — began, reaching into the 5270s.

When the 5th wave is complete, it will also mean the completion of its parent, wave 3{-5}, which will be followed by another 4th-wave downward correction, one degree larger than the one that ended on March 15.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a high in the 5240 in overnight trading and then declined.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory, the chart has two possible interpretations, of equal likelihood. One has a low-degree 4th-wave downward correction underway and its middle subwave, a rising B wave. The other has the low of 5167.75 as the end of the correction and the subsequent rise as the early subwaves within a 5th-wave uptrend.

Whichever is correct, it is all taking place within a larger rising 3rd wave, which in turn is a subwave of a series of 3rd waves of larger degree, all within a 5th wave uptrend that began on October 27, 2023.

How do we determine which interpretation best matches the chart? As always with Elliott Wave analysis, time will tell. If the price moves below 5167.75, the March 15 end of the preceding low-degree A wave, then the 4th-wave downward correction is continuing. If the price moves above 5253.50, the March 14 beginning of the 4th-wave downward correction, then the 4th wave ended on March 15 and the 5th wave began on that date and is underway.

What are the alternatives? There is uncertainty over the proper place of the waves within the fractal structure of the chart, their degree, in Elliott Wave terminology. For example, is wave 5{-1} on the chart really of that degree, or is it a degree higher, or lower. Those ambiguities will be resolved as the present trend works its way forward.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.
• Wave 3{-5} is in its 4th subwave, wave 4{-6}, and may have completed it.
• If wave 4{-6} is complete, then uptrending wave 5{-6} is underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 20, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, so far reaching into the 5230s. The price has remained below the March 14 high, 5253.50.

The pattern of the rise is consistent with both the subwaves within the a rising B wave within an upward correction and the early waves of the resumption of an uptrend. I’ve chosen the retain the principal analysis from this morning: A low degree 4th-wave downward correction is underway. An alternative analysis, a low-degree 5th-wave uptrend has begun. A move above 5253.50 will settle the matter in favor of the alternative. A move below the March 13 low, 5167.75, will suggest that the principal analysis is correct.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, from 5219.25 to the 5180s.

What does it mean? The rise that began on March 5, a 3rd wave according to Elliott Wave Theory, has completed its 3rd subwave and is now in a downward 4th-wave correction of lower degree. The small 4th-wave correction show three subwaves — the pattern for most corrections — and may be complete, which would mean that a small 5th-wave rise is underway. The 5th wave will complete its parent 3rd wave, and another downward 4th-wave correction will ensue.

If the price moves below 5167.75, the low of March 15, that’s a signal that the 4th-wave correction of lower degree is still underway.

The chart below shows the waves, numbered according to Elliott Wave Theory, with their degrees designated by subscripts in curly brackets showing the wave’s place within the fractal hierarchy of the price movements in relation to a much larger wave of {0} degree, an Intermediate degree in Elliott Wave terminology. The smaller the subscript, the lower the degree. See the “Reading the chart” section below for more on degrees.

In this case, the wave of lowest degree discussed above is wave 4{-6}, a downward correction within uptrending wave 3{-5}, which began on March 5.

This is all happening within wave 3{-2}, an uptrend several degrees larger that began on January 17.

What are the alternatives? There is uncertainty over the proper place of the waves within the fractal structure of the chart, their degree, in Elliott Wave terminology. Those ambiguities will be resolved as the present trend works its way forward.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.
• Wave 3{-5} is in its 4th subwave, wave 4{-6}, and may have completed it.
• If wave 4{-6} is complete, then uptrending wave 5{-6} is underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 19, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session into the 5240s and then fell back slightly. This morning’s Elliott Wave Theory analysis stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose after trading resumed overnight, reaching into the 5220s and leaving last weeks peak unchallenged.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied to the chart, sees the 3rd wave uptrend that began on March 5 as still being underway, a component of a series of increasingly larger 3rd waves covering three degrees, all within a still larger 5th wave uptrend that began on October 27, 2023.

Each of those 3rd waves in the fractal structure must, when complete, still work its way through a 4th-wave downard correction and then a 5th wave uptrend before the encompassing larger uptrending 5th wave is complete, suggesting that the uptrend still has some time to go.

In analyzing a chart like this, the length of the 3rd wave compare to that of the 1st wave is crucial. Under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, a 3rd wave can’t be sorter than both wave 1 and wave 5 within an impulse wave — a wave in the direction of the trend.

If wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, and the wave that followed wave 4 is longer than both waves 1 and 3, then the 3rd wave that followed must still be underway and in its own 3rd subwave, but one degree smaller.

That’s what has happened with wave 1{-2} and 3{-2} on this chart, producing a proliferation of smaller degrees within the wave 3{-2} uptrend.

What are the alternatives? There is uncertainty over the proper place of the waves within the fractal structure of the chart, their degree, in Elliott Wave terminology. Those ambiguities will be resolved as the present trend works its way forward.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 18, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have fallen during the session, so far reaching into the 5160s. The decline is a downward correction within a 3rd-wave uptrend that began on March 5. The small uptrend is part of a series of 3rd-wave uptrends of increasingly larger size, all subwaves of a 5th-wave uptrend that began on October 27, 2023.

I’ve updated the lower (close-up) chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to higher high overnight.

What does it mean? A low-degree 3rd wave that began on March 5 continues, a subwave buried three-degrees deep within a major uptrendng 3rd-wave that began on January 17.

That’s the close-up view. However, today’s Elliott Wave analysis will focus on the bigger picture. The Wednesday, March 13, afternoon analysis produced a problem in the close-up wave count: The low-degree B wave under discussion had five internal waves. B waves have three internal waves.

Indeed, the rise looked very much like a five-way uptrend.

A brief aside: Elliott Wave Theory is one of the most frustrating methods I’ve used for chart analysis. And yet, it has kept me focused directionally in my trading, with an eye to the big picture as well as the day’s price action.

Two major difficulties:

• Subjectivity: Different analysts can come up with different wave counts, reflecting conflicting interpretations and predictions.
• Hindsight Bias: It’s often easier to fit wave patterns to historical data than to accurately predict future waves.

I find Elliott Wave Theory to be fascinating and have used it for 40 years, but because of those two characteristics, I’m not a true believer. I approach any chart mark-up with a great deal of scepticism.

After all, in this Private Trader project, which is in its fourth year, time and time again the analysis has bumped up against a rule of Elliott Wave Theory and required a reanalysis.

That’s what has happened this week, yet again.

The goal of my reanalysis was to retain the rise that began on October 13, 2022 as an uptrend and to transform the rise that began on October 27, 2023 into a trending wave rather than an upward correction, all the while staying within the rules of Elliott Wave Theory.

To fix it, I had to go back to the January 4, 2022 high and find a way to analyze the subsequent fall and then rise into a three-subwave correction and then a five-subwave rising impulse wave.

In the process of doing so, the expanding Diagonal Triangle that began in December 2018, a wave that has long encompassed everything that is happening on the chart, had to be disgarded. With an expanding Diagonal Triangle, the 4th wave had to at least approach the triangle’s lower boundary. This 4th wave didn’t come close, so clearly something else was going wrong.

The top chart below is my reanalysis, from the January 4, 2022 peak to the present.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at the prior day’s session close, daily bars, with volume]

Closer up, I’ve numbered four encompassing degrees of subwaves within the rise from October 27.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars, with volume]

The low-degree 5th wave that began on March 5 — wave 3{-5} on the chart — will be followed by a 4th-wave downward correction and then a 5th-wave push to the upside. Across three degrees larger, the parent waves are all 3rd waves and so are far from their end.

On Monday I’ll discuss my revisions prior to the January 4, 2022 peak.

What are the alternatives? As usual, there is uncertainty over the proper place of the waves within the fractal structure of the chart. For example, should wave 4{0} really be listed as the {0} degree, or is it really a {-1} degree, pushing the later {-1} degree labels down to the {-2} degree. See the “Reading the chart” section below for more on degrees and their labeling,

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 15, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Symbols traded: SPY short Iron Fly (1DTE)

With the week’s economic reports out out of the way and the implied volatility rank having fallen to just above 20, I resumed my very short-term trades — in one day before expiration, out on expiration day.

The short call, with a $513 strike, was assigned. This revision covers to options portion of the trade. I’ll add a section on the stock portion.

SPY short Iron Fly

LOT:	11	ENTRY DATE:	3/14/2024
		MANAGEMENT:	3/15/2024	EXPIRATION:	3/15/2024
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.75	$ 0.26	$ 3.01	109.5%	39732%
Stock price	$ 513.44	$ 511.24	$ (2.20)	-0.4%	-156%
Impllied Volatility Rate	20.7	20.4	-0.3
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA	IN PRICE	OUT PRICE	NET PRICE
Calls
Long	516.00	84.0%	17	$ (0.30)	$ 0.02	$ (0.28)
Break-even	515.75	63.5%	37.5
Short	513.00	43.0%	58	$ 1.49	$ –	$ 1.49
Puts
Short	513.00	53.0%	46	$ 2.38	$ (2.92)	$ (0.54)
Break-even	510.75	65.0%	34.5
Long	508.00	77.0%	23	$ (0.82)	$ 0.41	$ (0.41)
						======
				`	NET TOTAL:	$ 0.26

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	275.00
Risk	125.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.5

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 14-15, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P futures price fell during the session, reaching into the 5190s. The B wave — wave B{-6} on the chart — has five clear subwaves, and that’s not supposed to happen in Elliott Wave Theory.

I’ve labeled the chart as wave B{-6} having ended at the peak and wave C{-6} having begun its decline, although it has become clear that the labeling has probably been overtaken by events on the chart and will require revision.

The rise that began on February 21 looks very much like an uptrending impulse wave, with five subwaves. However, as it has played out, the 3rd subwave is shorter than the 1st and 5th subwaves, and that never happens under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory.

I’ve updated the chart. And will update the revision, perhaps by Friday, perhaps by Monday.

1:50 p.m. New York time

Trade. With the week’s economic reports out out of the way and the implied volatility rank having fallen, I resumed my very short-term trades — in one day before expiration, out on expiration day. I entered a short Iron Fly position on SPY with the intent of exiting the next day — expiration day — win, lose or draw. I’ve posted an analysis of the trade.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a new high overnight, 5253.50, and fell sharply after the Producer Price Index for February was released.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory concludes that the higher high, 5253.50, once again extended the reach of the low degree rising wave B that began on March 4. And as is often the case, the higher high may in fact be the end of the wave and the beginning of the next wave down.

The decline after the release of the Producer Price Index carried the price into the 5230s.

The rising B wave is a subwave of a declining A wave one degree higher. Working our way up the fractal chain, the declining A wave is a subwave of a decling B wave, which is a subwave of a rising B wave within a still larger 4th-wave downward correction that began on February 12.

What are the alternatives? As I’ve noted before, the low-degree B-wave — wave B{-6} on the chart — has moved exceptionally high, suggesting that the wave labels may not accurately reflect each wave’s position within the fractal structure of the chart. Working on it.

The chart shows each wave number, followed by a subscript in curly brackets showing the waves distance from an Intermediate wave — in this case wave 5{0}, which began on December 26, 2018. See the “Reading the chart” section below for more on the degrees within the fractal structure of the chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle, began on December 26, 2018.
• Within it, an uptrend, wave 5{-1}, began on October 13, 2022 and is underway.
• Wave 5{-1} is the parent wave of a downward correction, wave 4{-2}, that began on February 12, 2024.
• Wave 4{-2} is in its second subwave, wave B{-3}, which in turn is in wave B{-4}, its middle subwave.
• Wave B{-4} is in its initial subwave, wave A{-5}.
• Internally, wave A{-5} is in its middle subwave, wave B{-6}.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/13/2022, 3502 (up) (futures), 3491.58 (up) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 4{-2} Minute, 2/12/2024, 5066.50 (down)
• B{-3} Minuette, 2/21/2024, 4959 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 14, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures so far have remained below the overnight peak, dropping into the 5220s and then rising back before dropping still lower as the closing bell approached. My analysis is unchanged from this morning. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures swung between the 5230s and the 5250s overnight, reaching a new high, 5247.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the chart as a rising B wave that began on March 4 continuing to search for its end point. Stock movements, always, are battles between the bulls and the bears. Team Bulls at this point continues to have an edge.

The B wave is a small part of a much larger 4th-wave downward correction that began on February 12. The correction’s price target, reflecting a tendency of 4th waves taking the Flat form, is within a upper boundary of 4830.75 (the red line on the chart) and 4702.

When wave B is complete, it will be followed by a declining C wave that will complete the parent wave, an A wave. Given the waves line-up, the downward correction will be on the chart for awhile.

See the “What does Elliott wave theory say” section, below, for an inventory of current waves, including where they stand in the fractal structure of the chart. See the “Reading the chart” section for a discussion of the fractal structure and a wave’s degree within it.

What are the alternatives? It’s getting a bit repetitious, but I have some doubts about the degree labeling used in my analysis. The present B wave seems overly long for its place in the fractal structure. Figuring it out will be a project for the weekend.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle, began on December 26, 2018.
• Within it, an uptrend, wave 5{-1}, began on October 13, 2022 and is underway.
• Wave 5{-1} is the parent wave of a downward correction, wave 4{-2}, that began on February 12, 2024.
• Wave 4{-2} is in its second subwave, wave B{-3}, which in turn is in wave B{-4}, its middle subwave.
• Wave B{-4} is in its initial subwave, wave A{-5}.
• Internally, wave A{-5} is in its middle subwave, wave B{-6}.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/13/2022, 3502 (up) (futures), 3491.58 (up) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 4{-2} Minute, 2/12/2024, 5066.50 (down)
• B{-3} Minuette, 2/21/2024, 4959 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 13, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose slightly during the session, reaching a new high in the 5240s so far. The small rising B-wave buried deep in the ongoing 4th-wave upward correction continues. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures whipsawed when the Consumer Price Index was released, before the opening bell. The price ended up at a new high in the 5220s.

What does it mean? The new high confirmed that, at a low degree, the rising B wave that began on March 5 is still underway. That small B wave and its parent wave are seeking a top. Whenever they appear to have found it, they pull a surprise.

Elliott Wave Theory shows the small B wave — wave B{-6} on the chart — is in its fifth and final subwave.

This is all happening within a downward correction four degrees larger, wave 4{-2} on the chart, which began on February 12.

What are the alternatives? The chart continues to look unbalanced to me, and I’ll continue searching outr alternatives to test, all of which involve changing the degree designation for various groups of waves. That is to say, changing their place within the fractal structure of the chart.

On the chart, the degree designation appears as a subscript, within curly brackets, showing the wave’s position in the fractal hierarchy relative to the Intermediate degree, which is presently wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle, began on December 26, 2018.
• Within it, an uptrend, wave 5{-1}, began on October 13, 2022 and is underway.
• Wave 5{-1} is the parent wave of a downward correction, wave 4{-2}, that began on February 12, 2024.
• Wave 4{-2} is in its second subwave, wave B{-3}, which in turn is in wave B{-4}, its middle subwave.
• Wave B{-4} is in its initial subwave, wave A{-5}.
• Internally, wave A{-5} is in its middle subwave, wave B{-6}.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/13/2022, 3502 (up) (futures), 3491.58 (up) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 4{-2} Minute, 2/12/2024, 5066.50 (down)
• B{-3} Minuette, 2/21/2024, 4959 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 12, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, from the 5150s back into the 5190s. If the price moves above 5196 — the overnight high — then the principal analysis will switch the ongoing wave back to rising wave B, with the caveat that each new high could in fact be the end of wave B and the start of declining wave C.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened higher when trading resumed, at 5196, and immediately fell, into the 5160s so far.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analyzes the chart as follows: The downward correction that began on February 12 continues and is in its 3rd subwave, an A wave. On Friday I had labeled, on that chart, that day’s high as the end of a rising B wave four degrees lower in the correction, and the start of next wave, a declining C wave. The new high requires an adjustment, and the overnight high is now considered to be the end of wave B and the start of wave C.

That low-degree C wave is labeled wave C{-6}, with a subscript in curly brackets designating the degree’s relative position in the fractal structure of the chart. The {-6} means that it is six degrees lower in the structure than is the current Intermediate degree, to use the terminology of R.N. Elliott, who developed Elliott Wave Theory in the 1930s. The current Intermediate degree is wave 5{0}, which began on December 26, 2018.

See the “Reading the chart” section below for more on the fractal structure in Elliott’s theory, and the “What does Elliott Wave Theory say?” section and the “We Are Here” section for lists of waves, each with its starting price and date, and direction.

What are the alternatives? The biggest ambiguity is the degree placement: Should everything be moved up a degree? Or the smaller waves moved down a degree?

One glaringly obvious alternative that I looked at over the weekend is that the downward correction, wave 4{-2}, ended on February 21 at 4929 (that position is labeled as the end of a subwave, wave C{-4}, on the chart.) If that’s the end of wave 4{-2}, then uptrending wave 5{-2} began from that point and is presently underway.

I’ve marked the alternative wave numbers on the chart in blue, preceded by “Alt:”.

I concluded that the alternative doesn’t work. It would require that wave [Alt: 1{-3}] end on February 23 (the present label is wave A{-5}. [Alt: 2{-3}] would follow, with three subwaves, ending on March 5 (the present label is wave A{-6}.

And that’s where the problem lies. In a 2nd wave, the B subwave never moves beyond the 2nd wave’s starting point. Yet in the alternative count, wave [Alt: B{-4}] moves above the starting point of [Alt: A{-4}] and its parent, [Alt: 2{-3}].

In Elliott Wave Theory, that’s an error. And from it I conclude that wave 4{-2} is still underway and wave 5{-2} has not yet begun.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 75-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle, began on December 26, 2018.
• Within it, an uptrend, wave 5{-1}, began on October 13, 2022 and is underway.
• Wave 5{-1} is the parent wave of a downward correction, wave 4{-2}, that began on February 12, 2024.
• Wave 4{-2} is in its second subwave, wave B{-3}, which in turn is in wave B{-4}, its middle subwave.
• Wave B{-4} is in its initial subwave, wave A{-5}.
• Internally, wave A{-5} is in its final subwave, wave C{-6}.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/13/2022, 3502 (up) (futures), 3491.58 (up) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 4{-2} Minute, 2/12/2024, 5066.50 (down)
• B{-3} Minuette, 2/21/2024, 4959 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 11, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.