1/26 – 3:20 p.m. New York time
I entered a shares position on CG and exite and options position on TWTR.
Shares: K, MDSO and MPW
Kellogg Co. (K)
Medidata Solutions Inc. (MDSO)
Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)
I have entered earnings plays using shares on three symbols, all for projected exit by Feb. 7 at the latest.
I exited MPW on Jan. 29 and MDSO on Jan. 30 on Fisher Transform reversals downward amid a general decline in the stock markets.
K turned down on Feb. 1, along with much of the broader market, triggering a downtrend signal on the Fisher Transformer. I exited for a minuscule profit.
| sym | entry | exit | result (%) | annualized (%) | entry date | exit date |
| K | 67.66 | 67.84 | 0.3% | 14% | 1/25 | 2/1 |
| MDSO | 70.00 | 70.07 | 0.1% | 7.3% | 1/25 | 1/30 |
| MPW | 13.19 | 12.97 | -1.7% | -152.2% | 1/25 | 2/7 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 25, 2018
TWTR Analysis
Update 1/26/2018: TWTR’s Fisher Transform metric reversed to uptrending and, in line with my current guidelines, I exited immediately. The trend change puts TWTR’s trend at odds with a strong negative earnings surprise predictor from Zacks of -11%.
Shares rose by 4.3% over one day, or a +1,569% annual rate. The options position produced a -30.4% loss for a -11,109% annual rate.
Seeking Alpha posted this take on the reversal: Twitter gains while analysts face COO departure.
In traditional chart analysis, TWTR’s decline was a fall from a double top, and double-top lore put support at $21.53. TWTR’s low before the the reversal took wind was $21.04, so it fell short of the mark by 51 cents.
I have entered a bear call vertical spread on TWTR, using options that trade for the last time 15 days hence, on Feb. 9. The premium is a $0.32 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $22.33.
I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a negative earnings surprise predictor from Zacks of -11.0% and a downtrend from the Fisher Transform metric.
TWTR publishes earnings on Feb. 8 before the opening bell.
Live: Thursday, Jan. 25, 2018
1/25 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
I entered four earnings plays today, using options on TWTR and shares on K, MDSO and MPW. I exited EGN for a loss.
Shares: EGN and MTW
I entered two bullish earnings plays using shares, on EGN and MTW. The entry is based on an uptrend signal on the Fisher Transform metric and a high expectation of an earnings surprise.
EGN publishes earnings on Feb. 8 before the opening bell and MTW, on Feb. 7 after the market close. My intent is to exit the positions before earnings are published, relying on the Fisher Transform to signal when I should exit.
EGN moved to a downtrend as signaled by the Fisher Transform shortly after entry. I exited on Jan. 25 for a loss. A Fisher reversal occurred on Jan. 30, and I exited MTW, also for a loss.
Live: Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018
1/24 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I entered two earnings plays using shares and exited two. The entries are EGN and MTW, and the exits — held for two days — are CTLT and IT,
I analyzed ANTM in part but once I calculated the wide bid/ask spread, I declined the trade without a full analysis.
I posted my pools of options (nine symbols) and shares (23 symbols) earnings plays that I shall be analyzing from for the next week
HAS Analysis
I have rejected a short bull put spread on HAS, using options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on Feb. 9. The bid/ask spread was very high — greater than 100% — and as a firm rule I don’t trade such illiquid assets.
Here’s the analysis that got me to that decision:
I made the decision to analyze the trade in my account based on a downtrend beginning Jan. 16 as measured by the Fisher Transform metric and a bearish rank and a negative score of -3.87% on the earnings surprise predictor from Zacks.
HAS publishes earnings on Feb. 5 before the opening bell.
FB Analysis
Update 1/30/2018: FB turned to the downside on the Fisher Transform metric, and I exited for a profit. The drop coincided with a general decline in blue chip stocks.
The signal came a day before the mandatory date of exit required to avoid the earnings announcement.
Shares declined by 1.2% over seven days, or a -61% annual rate. The options position produced a -19.5% loss for a -1,015% annual rate.
I have entered a short bull put spread on FB, using options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on Feb. 9. The premium is a $1.78 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $187.35.
I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a positive earnings surprise predictor of 2.04% and a bull rating from Zacks and an uptrend signaled Jan. 22 by the Fisher Transform metric.
FB publishes earnings on Jan. 31 after the closing bell.
Live: Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018
Shares: CTLT
I have entered an earnings play using shares on CTLT, which publishes its earnings report on Feb. 5 before the opening bell.
I exited a few days after entry on a trend shift to the downside on the 3-hour Fisher Transform metric. The position produced a 5.9% return over two days, or a 1,080% annual rate.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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