12/1 – 3:05 p.m. New York time
In today’s outcomes, I entered a position on GWPH and exited one on FIVE, each of them an earnings play using shares.
Shares: FIVE
Shares trade in connection with an earnings announcement for action on November 30: FIVE
The company came in short of the Street estimate by more than a cent. The price rose overnight, I exited immediately after the opening bell, and then the price fell.
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| FIVE | 61.95 | 62.67 | 0.72 | 1.2% | 11/30 | 12/1 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | earns est. | earns actual | |||
| 2 | 5.56 | 0.13 | 0.1178 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 30, 2017
Live: Thursday, November 30, 2017
11/30 – 3:40 p.m. New York time
I entered a new shares position on FIVE. I exited options positions on KR and ADSK and shares positions on MIK, DSGX and PSTG.
This brings the site up to date after a problem at the site’s host, WordPress, left me unable to post or edit for two solid hours. This didn’t impact my trading, but the documentation of positions that I closed will take some time to complete, and may well slip into Friday, a day in which I anticipate entering no new positions.
Long story short: For options, KR and MIK produced profits and ADSK, DSGX and PSTG, losses.
Shares: DSGX and MIK
Shares trade in connection with an earnings announcement for action on November 29: DSGX and MIK.
DSGX came in 20% below the consensus estimate and the price fell. MIK came in slightly above estimate — essentially the same — and the price rose sharply.
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| DSGX | 30.05 | 27.85 | -2.20 | -7.3% | 11/29 | 11/30 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | earns est. | earns actual | |||
| 3 | 10.00 | 0.1 | 0.08 | |||
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| MIK | 19.33 | 21.32 | 1.99 | 10.3% | 11/29 | 11/30 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | earns est. | earns actual | |||
| 2 | 1.18 | 0.43 | 0.4357 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 29, 2017
KR Analysis
The Kroger Co. (KR)
Update 11/30/2017: KR announced earnings of $0.4139 per share, beating analysts’ consensus expectation of $0.40. Share prices rose by $3.29 in early trading before the opening bell and then at the open went into a decline that lasted the day. I exited early, near the peak., at 86.1% of maximum potential return.
Shares rose by 11.8% during the one-day lifespan of the position, or a +4,301% annual rate. The options position produced a +620.0% return (not a typo) for a +226,300 annual rate (also not a typo).
From the pre-earns close to the close of the first post-earns session, the price rose by $1.48, well within the post-earns moves of the last four quarters.
Eleven analyst forecasts had implied a positive earnings surprise, with a Zacks earnings surprise predictor score of 3.33 in the context of a neutral longer-range rank of 3.
The trend metrics were mildly bullish, with an average directional index (ADX) of 25.88, a +DI of 32.38 and a -DI of 12.43.
KR publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on Dec. 15.
Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
KR’s IV stands in the 75th percentile of its annual range and the 92nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Wednesday, November 29, 2017
11/29 – 3:10 p.m. New York time
I entered an options position on KR and shares positions on DSGX and MIK. I exited a shares position on PSTG.
Shares: GLNG, PSTG
Corrected from an earlier version posted 11/29.
Shares trade in connection with an earnings announcement for action on November 28: GLNG and PSTG.
GLNG the earnings publication date changed from what was expected and I exited for a small profit. Earnings were published after I exited, coming in slightly worse than the estimate, and the stock began a downtrend.
PSTG came in better than the Street estimate, although it was still a loss, and the price began a decline.
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| GLNG | 25.01 | 25.16 | 0.15 | 0.6% | 11/28 | 11/29 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | earns est. | earns actual | |||
| 4 | 7.97 | -0.36 | -0.3673 | |||
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| PSTG | 18.90 | 17.93 | -0.97 | -5.1% | 11/28 | 11/30 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | earns est. | earns actual | |||
| 3 | 18.52 | -0.03 | -0.0276 |
MRVL Analysis
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL)
MRVL publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Dec. 8.
Implied volatility stands at 38%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
MRVL’s IV stands in the 71st percentile of its annual range and the 81st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
ADSK Analysis
Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)
Update 11/30/2017: ADSK published earnings of a $0.12 per share loss, well below the Street estimate of a $0.1003 loss. In after hours trading share prices immediate drop $20 in 5 minutes. I exited for a loss.
Shares declined by 13.7% over the two-day existence of the position, or a -2,504% annual rate. The options position produced a -72.2% loss for a -13,181% annual rate.
The 12 analysts watching ADSK had anticipated a positive earnings surprise, issuing assessments implying an earnings surprise predictor score of 4.23 in the context of a neutral (3) longer-term expectation.
The $20.61 movement from the pre-earnings close to the end of the first post-earns session was larger than any among the prior four quarterly announcements.
The trend metrics showed ADSK as uptrending, with an ADSK of 30.79 with a +DI of 26.75 and a -DI of 15.00.
All in all, ADSK defied all metrics and every expectation.
ADSK publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on Dec. 15.
Implied volatility stands at 40%, which is 3.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
ADSK’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 84th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Tuesday, November 28, 2017
11/28 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I entered an options position on ADSK and shares positions on GLNG and PSTG timed to coincide with earnings announcements. I analyzed MRVL as an options-based earnings play but declined to take the trade.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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