The Week Ahead: Housing, industry, Yellen

Tim Bovee

Two major housing reports will be issued: Housing starts, on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time and existing home sales on Friday at 10 a.m. Also, on Tuesday look for industrial production at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks twice during the week, on Sunday at 9 a.m. to the G30 International Banking Seminar and on Friday at 7:30 p.m. at the National Economists Club, both in Washington.

The Sunday speech will be on the Fed officials’ generic topic, The Economy and Monetary Policy. The Wednesday speech will be slightly more focused in its subject, Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis.

The speeches come in during the week in which the Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book describing business conditions in each Federal Reserve bank’s region. Out Wednesday at 2 p.m.

A housekeeping note: I’m discontinuing the Fedsters section, with speaking engagements by the Federal Reserve bank presidents. Speeches by the Federal Reserve chair and governors will be listed among the economic release lists.

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SCHW Analysis

Tim Bovee3 Comments

The Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW)

Update 10/17/2017: SCHW’s earnings matched the consensus forecast, and prices fluctuated in a range that remained within the profit zone. I exited at 8.8% of maximum potential profit, below my target of 25%.

SCHW’s share price stayed within the zone of profit after earnings were published and came close to the central tendency of the last four post-earns movements. Zacks‘ earnings surprise predictor had given SCHW a 0.20 positive score.

Shares rose by 0.3% over my four-day holding period, or a +29% annual rate. The options position prouced a 9.6% return for a +879% annual rate.

SCHW publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 14 days hence, on Oct. 27.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

SCHW’s IV stands in the 69th percentile of its annual range and the 28th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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WFC Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

Update 10/13/2017: WFC gapped to the downside after earnings were published. It broke past the breakeven point, and I exited for a a loss a week before the options expire, with shares down $1.86 from my entry point and the contracts costing $1.82 each to exit, or 56 cents net.debit.

The company showed a significant downside earnings surprise, report $0.84 per share compared to the consensus forecast of $1.05. The Zacks earnings surprise predictor had forecast a 0.20 upside earnings surprise.

The actual move at the time I exited was wider than the expected move and also larger than the maximum of the last four post-earnings trading days.

Shares declined by 3.4% over my one-day holding period, for a -1,231% annual rate. The options position produced a 30.8% loss for a -11,231% annual rate.

WFC publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Oct. 20.

Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 2.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

WFC’s IV stands in the 41st percentile of its annual range and the 83rd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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DAL Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update 10/19/2017: DAL hit the consensus earnings forecast almost on the mark, coming in at $1.57 per share. The price closed the session immediately after earnings were announced up $0.37, within the central tendency and the average of the the past year’s post-earns moves.

I opted for a directional, bearish trade, which means the position lasted longer than with my direction-neutral plays. The price the next day out moved contrary to my position, rising about a dollar, and then began a four-day decline that brought the position near my profit goal. I exited a 49.1% of maximum potential profit.

Zacks had scored DAL as very bearish, with no earnings surprise expected. The surprise part turned out to be correct. And in Elliott wave terms the post-earns trend has been bearish, since the downward turn occurred below the prior peak of $55.75.

Shares declined by 3.3% over nine days, or a -135% annual rate. The options position produced a +97% return for a +3,916% annual rate.

DAL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I  shall use options that trade for the last time 39 days hence, on Nov. 17. I’m going further out than is my usual practice on earnings plays because I have concluded that a bearish directional position best suits DAL’s prospects.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 32nd percentile of its annual range and the 71st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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FAST Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Fastenal Co. (FAST)

Update 10/11/2017: FAST’s earnings came in at $0.50, slightly below the Street’s $0.52 consensus. The price gapped to the downside, and I exited for a small loss.

Although there is a chance that the price will reverse back to the upside, I have had very little good fortune when I hold to that expectation. That’s why I got out quickly.

Fundamentally, the iron fly strategy seems to work best when it’s treated as a roll of the dice: See the results, quickly take the winnings or losses, and move on.

Shares declined by 4.4% during my holding period, or a -1,619% annual rate. The options position produced a 8.2% loss for a -2,980% annual rate.

The $2.45 share price move was $0.31 greater than the expected move  yet below the average and central tendency moves of the past year.No earnings surprise was expected, contrary to the downside surprise that actually occurred.

FAST publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Oct. 20.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FAST’s IV stands in the 87th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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GLD Analysis

Tim Bovee3 Comments

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

GLD by my count using Elliott wave analysis has began an upward push in a countertrend correction. A sharp rise on Friday, continued with an upward gap today, seems to confirm my assessment.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 39 days hence, on Nov. 17.

Implied volatility stands at 11%, which is 1.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GLD’s IV stands in the 13th percentile of its annual range and the 3rd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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