12/29 – 12:10 p.m. New York time
UNF continues to be non=trending, with an average directional index (ADX) of 20.5. None of the other symbols under watch have improved sufficiently to qualify as trades. I plan to enter no positions nor to exit any, giving no outcomes for the day.
12/27 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I exited one trade today, NKE, and entered none. I listed, below in this post, potential trades for next week.
12/16 – 3:20 p.m. New York tme
I neither entered nor exited positions today. No outcomes, as is common during the week between Christas and the start of the New Year.
Monday is Christmas Day, and markets will be closed in New York, London and Sydney.
One major report will be published during the shortened week, international trade in goods, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
12/22 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
In today’s outcomes, I entered no new positions, exited my options position on NKE and kept my shares position on NKE.
NKE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell. I have also placed an options trade on NKE.
NKE’s earnings beat analysts’ expectations, but the price fell after the announcement. I held the position through the Christmas holiday in the hope that there would be a reversal and I could mitigate my loss, and indeed that is what happened when I exited on Dec. 27.
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| NKE | 64.72 | 63.38 | -1.34 | -2.1% | 12/21 | 12/22 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | DI spread | ADX | earns est. | earns actual | |
| 3 | 1.21 | 15.72 | 43.63 | 0.4372 | 0.46 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oreogn, Dec. 21, 2017
NIKE Inc. (NKE)
Update 12/22/2017: NKE’s earnings eat the Street estimate by 2.3%, coming in at $0.46 per share against the consensus forecast of $0.4372. Shares fell $4.71 in extended hours trading and then recovered by $2.67, falling into a narrow sideways movement. I exited for a loss.
Shares fell by 2.8% over my holding period of less than a day, or a -1,034% annual rate. The options position produced a -10.8% loss for a -3,931% annual rate.
Going into the trade the Zacks earnings surprise predictor shows a 1.21% score in the context of a neutral rank (3), accurately anticipating the actual report.
The trend metrics, however, were less successful. The average directional indicator (ADX) at 43.63 suggested a strong trend, and the directional indicators, with +DI at 29.27 and -DI at 13.55, showed it as an uptrend, missing the decline that actually ensued.
I shall complete this report with the daily movement vs. the expected movements after the number are available.
NKE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Dec. 29.
Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
NKE’s IV stands in the 96th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.
12/21 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I placed both an options and shares position on NKE timed to coincide with an earnings announcement. See NKE Analysis and Shares: NKE.
I exited options positions on BBBY and KMX and shares positions on ACN and FINL, and also on WGO.
I have entered earnings plays using shares on ACN and FINL. Each publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
ACN rose more than $6 after beatings the Street’s earnings forecast.
FINL rose more than a dollar after beating earnings expectations, although both the consensus estimate and the results were losses
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| ACN | 152.20 | 156.08 | 3.88 | 2.6% | 12/20 | 12/21 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | DI spread | ADX | earns est. | earns actual | |
| 2 | 0.56 | 12.77 | 36.63 | 1.66 | 1.79 | |
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| FINL | 11.77 | 12.86 | 1.09 | 9.3% | 12/20 | 12/21 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | DI spread | ADX | earns est. | earns actual | |
| 3 | 1.36 | 12.77 | 37.3 | -0.37 | -0.26 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 20, 2017
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