Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR)

Update 8/8/2017: CAR zig-zagged within a $4 span for two days after earnings were published, finally settling into a sideways pattern below the pre-earnings close. I exited at 25.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline in my holding period of -3.4% over two days, or a -617% annual rate. The options position produced a 35.05 yield on debit for a +6,301% annual rate.

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CAR publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 68%, which is 6.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CAR’s IV stands in the 88th percentile of its annual range and the 84th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC)

Update 8/8/2017: THC fell by $2 after earnings were published, recovered about half in early trading and then fell back. I exited at 18% of maximum potential profit, less than my 25% target, in order to clear room in the account for another trade.

Shares declined by 6.4% over my one-day holding period, or a -2,339.5% annual rate. Tye options position produced a 22.05 yield on debit for a +8,035% annual rate.

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THC publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 76%, which is 7.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

THC’s IV stands in the 97th percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. N.V.  (CBI)

Update 8/14/2017: CBI fell by $6 after coming in with earnings at $3.02 per share, well below the $0.30 Street consensus. It rose by $2 over the subsequent two trading days, when I exited at $3.35 for a loss, with shares at $12.45. 

Shares declined by a net $25.1% during my seven-day holding period, or a -1,306% annual rate. The options position produced a -35.9% loss on debit for a -1,868% annual rate.

Had I exited the day after earnings were published, I would have gotten out with the stock at the same level as today, and with the option going for a debit of about $3.68. Tactically, waiting until closer to expiration cut $0.33 from my loss, thanks to the workings of  time decay.

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CBI publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 94%, which is 9.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CBI’s IV stands in the the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

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8/7 – 2:40 p.m. New York time

I entered five new positions today: CAR, CBS, KORS, CBI and THC. No exits.

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8/6 – 12 p.m. New York time

My position on SBUX, which was turned into a zombie by an options assignment, has finally met its end, expiring after Friday’s session. I have updated the analysis with results.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 6, 2017

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It’s inflation week in economic reporting, or deflation week, or some sort of ‘flation — no one can really figure it out at this point, as the Fed raises rates to calm nearly non-existent inflation while a non-existent deflation continues to threaten the economy. Fake ‘flation, anyone?

The producer price index final demand will be published on Thursday, to followed on Friday by the consumer price index, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time. And that is pretty much the high point of the week.

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8/4 – 3:45 p.m. New York time

I have completed updating the AAPL and STX analyses with results. Note that I’ve added additional odds information to the exit analysis.

8/4 – 2:20 p.m. New York time 

AAPL and STX halted their favorable micro-trends, and I have exited both. I shall update their analyses with results shortly.

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8/3 – 7:05 p.m. New York time

As I expected, the protective exit orders I placed on AAPL and STX expired unfilled while I was airborne over the Pacific. Both reach the mandatory exit date on Monday, so I shall be actively working to to manage the positions.

I have updated ADM with results. I exited the position on Aug. 2 but was unable to complete results calculation because of my travel schedule.

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Transocean Ltd. (RIG)

RIG publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Aug. 11.

Implied volatility stands at 55%, which is 5.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

RIG’s IV stands in the 62nd percentile of its annual range and the 73rd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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9/2 – 4:55 p.m. New York time

I analyzed RIG but declined to take the trade.

An exit order on ADM was filled. I’m catching a flight back to the United States shortly, so I shall defer posting the full results until my arrival in Portland, Oregon on Thursday after the closing bell. I can say now that the exit was at my target, about 25% of maximum potential profit, which produces a yield on debit of about 33%.

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