6/2 – 3:30 p.m. New York time
I entered one new position, an earnings play on JKS, and exited seven positions: AAPL, AVGO, CIEN, DG, EWZ, KORS and PANW. The EWZ exit wraps up a series, and I calculated results for the series s a whole.
I decided not to exit my one remaining position expiring next week, LULU. It is within reach of profitability if it continues to fall, so the trend matches my preferred outcome. I intent to exit the position on Monday.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)
Update 6/5/2017: LULU gapped sharply higher after earnings wee published and then retraced a small portion of the gain, not enough to make the position profitable but sufficient to greatly mitigate the loss. I exited with four days to go before expiration.
Shares produced a net rise of 10.4% over the four-day lifespan of the position, or a +951% annual rate. The options position produced a 3.4% loss on debit for a -313% annual rate.
LULU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 9.
Implied volatility stands at 63%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
LULU’s IV stands in the 87th percentile of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.
Broadcom Ltd. (AVGO)
Update 6/2/2017: AVGO gapped sharply to the upside and remained high. With expiration only a week away, I judged that there was little chance of the position improving and I took the loss.
Shares rose by 4.8% over one day, or a +1,764% annual rate. The options position produced a -2.3% loss on debit for a -854% annual rate.
AVGO publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 9.
Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
AVGO’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 97th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
6/1 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I entered two new positions, AVGO and LULU, and exited one position, AAP. I have an exit order in on AAPL that has not been filled.
6/1 – 10:15 a.m. New York time
I shall be analyzing two symbols as prospective trades: AVGO and LULU.
I have exited AAP and shall update the analysis shortly.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 1, 2017
Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)
Update 6/2/2017: PANW gapped sharply higher after earnings were published, putting it beyond reach of profitability in the week before options expiration. I took the loss.
Shares rose by 16.6% over two days, or a +3,029% annual rate. Tye options position produced a -40.3% loss on debit for a -7,354% annual rate.
PANW publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.
Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
PANW’s IV stands in the 84th percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE)
HPE publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.
Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
HPE’s IV stands in the 17th percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement. A series of large volatility spikes in late March and early April brought the annual range percentile down.
Dollar General Corp. (DG)
Update 6/2/2017: DG gapped to the upside after earnings were published and continued to rise the next day. I took the loss with a week left before expiration.
Shares rose b7 9.3% over two days, or a +1,699% annual rate. The options position produced a -37.7% loss on debit for a -6,888% annual rate.
DG publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.
Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
DG’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Ciena Corp. (CIEN)
Update 6/2/2017: CIEN rose sharply into unprofitable territory, with little hope of becoming profitable in the week before expiration. I took the loss.
Shares showed a net rise of 17.2% over two days, or a +3,129% annual rate. The options position produced a -47.3% loss on debit for a -8,632% annual rate.
CIEN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.
Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CIEN’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Box Inc. (BOX)
Update 6/5/2017: BOX gapped to the upside after earnings were published, stayed high for a second day and then dropped back to only slightly above its pre-earnings price. I exited at 25% of maximum profit, my target level.
Shares showed a net rise of 4.7% over five days, or a +341% annual rate. The options position produced a 38.4% yield on debit for a +2,655% annual rate.
BOX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on June 16.
Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
BOX’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and at the peek of its most recent broad movement.
5/31 – 3;05 p.m. New York time
I entered four new positions today: BOX, CIEN, DG and PANW. I analyzed HPE as a potential earnings play but declined to take it.
I exited ADI for a profit and have an order in to exit AAPL, which has not been filled and appears unlikely to go through today. Nonetheless, I shall leave the AAPL order active and update if is executed before the closing bell.
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