IEF Analysis (shares)

Tim Bovee3 Comments

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)

I have entered a longer-term share position in IEF, an exchange-traded fund based on 7- and 10-year U.S. Treasuries.

I based the trade on Elliott Wave analysis that suggests that an end to the 5-wave price decline from the July peak of $114. The analysis, under Elliott Wave theory, suggests a large retracement to the upside. The fund pays a monthly dividend at present prices and rates of 1.82% annually.

Basically, it’s a good parking spot for unused funds, providing some dividend income and the chance of capital gains.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 13, 2017

 

The Week Ahead: Money policy, prices, retail, housing, industry

Tim Bovee

A two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with forecasts and a news conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, will dominate market thinking the first half the week, and responses the second half. The money policy announcement and release of the forecasts is scheduled for Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time, with Yellen’s news conference happening at 2:30 p.m.

The high number of jobs created in have persuaded market prognosticators that the central bank will raise interest rates. But of course, only the Fedsters know for sure.

Fittingly, two inflation measures will be released before the FOMC announcement: The producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m.

Other major reports: Retail sales, also on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., housing starts on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production on Friday at 9:15 a.m.

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PAY Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY)

Update 3/10/2017: PAY’s implied volatility declined sharply after earnings came in at about half of the Street estimate. I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit the day after entering the position.

Shares declined by 3.9% over a day, or a -1,408% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +12,167% annual rate.

PAY publishes earnings on Thursday, March 9, after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 43 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 45%, which is 3.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PAY’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Wednesday’s Outcomes

Tim Bovee1 Comment

I entered no new positions today.

I placed exit orders on my ADSK, CRM and CIEN positions. None has been filled. If any are, I shall update Outcomes after the closing bell. ADSK and CIEN appear unlikely to be filled. CRM is within the realm of possibility.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017

 

Private Trader: Live Coverage

Tim Bovee

One difficulty with Private Trader is that there are so many housekeeping posts, from Prospects the night before to Outcomes at the end of the trading day, that the analyses tend to get lost.

To simplify the reader’s view, beginning Thursday, March 9, I am changing the Private Trader posting schedule. Rather than a separate post for Prospects, Agenda and Outcomes, I shall do a single post and update it throughout the day.

The headline will be in the form:

Live: Thursday, March 9, 2017

with new updates appearing at the top of the file.

In addition to taking up less blog space, the new format will be less rigid, freeing me to post on trading subjects that don’t fit well into the prospects, agenda, outcomes progression.

Each update will be accompanied by notification on Twitter

https://twitter.com/TimBovee

and Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader/

just as posts are now.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2017