Best Buy Co. Inc,. (BBY)

Update 3/2/2017: BBY fell sharply after earnings were published, pushing the position to 25.7% of maximum potential profit, slightly better than my target price. I exited in the morning, missing a large price rise the next day that would have wiped out my profits.

Shares rose by 0.8% over two days, for a +137% annual rate. The options position produced a 34.6% yield on debit for a +6,312% annual rate.

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I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 50%, which is four times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BBY’s IV stands in the 90th percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Each of my five prospects have opened the day still qualifying for a full analysis and possibly a trade. They are BBY, LOW, CRM, MYL and TRCO.

I’ve also placed exit orders on GM and SU at my target price. Neither has yet been filled.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2017

 

I shall be looking at five potential earnings plays for action on Tuesday: BBY, CRM, LOW, MYL and TRCO.

A sixth symbol, CBI, is also sufficiently liquid with implied volatility high enough to meet my standards. However, it goes ex-dividend on March 16, leaving too short a window by my standards to attain profitability.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2017

 

My exit order on BP was filled shortly before the closing bell. I have uppated the analysis with results.

I have also updated the BMY and V analyses with results.

The original Outcomes post for Monday may be read here.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2017

 

I entered three earnings plays: HTZ, IONS and TGT. I exited two positions, each for a loss: BMY and V. I shall update the exit trades analyses with results after the closing bell.

I analyzed two additional symbols for entry but passed on the trades: OKE and QVCA.

I am attempting to exit two positions — BP and GM — but have not yet gotten a fill. If the trades are completed, then I shall update Outcomes.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2017

 

ONEOK Inc. (OKE)

OKE publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

OKE’s IV stands in the 11th percentile of its annual range and the 46th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.  (IONS)

Update 3/15/2017: IONS rose sharply for three days after earnings, then fell into an equally sharp decline for five days that brought the share price below its pre-earnings level.

I exited early, at 12.5% of maximum potential profit, to avoid time risk after prices settled at that lower level. Shares showed a net decline of 10.% over 16 days, or a -247% annual rate. The options position produced a 14.4% yield on debit for a +328% annual rate

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IONS publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 68%, which is 5.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

IONS’s IV stands in the 34th percentile of its annual range and the 58th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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QVC Group (QVCA)

QVCA publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 49%, which is 4.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

QVCA’s IV stands in the 73rd percentile of its annual range and the 72nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ)

Update 3/22/2017: HTZ shares rose sharply after earnings were published stayed high until March 17 and then began to fall sharply, exceeding my target profit of 25% of maximum potential profit. I exited.

Shares showed a net declined of 2.7% over 23 days, or a 42% annual rate. The optons position produced a 49.8% yield on debit for a +790% annual rate.

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HTZ publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 79%, which is 6.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

HTZ’s IV stands in the 91st percentile of its annual range and the 86th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Target Corp. (TGT)

Update 4/22/2017: TGT gapped down sharply after earnings were published and then continued to decline at a less dramatic pace, moving deeper into unprofitable territory.

I was less nimble than I ought to have been for a position with some options deep in the money, and the short puts were assigned on March 20. I exited the shares the next day, and also sold the long puts, leaving a deep out of the money short call spread, which expired April 22, winding up the entire position.

Over the 54-day life of the position shares had a net decline of 17.9%, or a -121% annual rate. The options position produced a 4.2% loss on debit for a -28.4% annual rate

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TGT publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TGT’s IV stands in the 69th percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »