The three prospective trades in my pocket this morning — ADSK, COST and SGMS — continue to qualify for a further look, and I shall analyze them today and possibly enter new positions.
I have exited BBY at a bit above my target price and shall update the analysis with results later today.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 2, 2017
I have three potential earnings plays up for analysis on Thursday: ADSK, COST and SGMS.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 1, 2017
I entered no new positions.
The short call leg of my SU iron fly was assigned, placing 300 short shares of stock in my account at a market price of $31.33.
I bought back the shares at the strike price, $30 — a loss of $1.33 per share.
The remaining options are profitable at $29.49 and higher, and I have retained them in the expectation that they will expire profitably out of the money at the end of the day on March 17. If the opportunity presents itself, I will get rid of them early.
I will refrain from updating the analysis until the entire position has been unwound.
I am attempting an exit of BBY at my target price. I shall leave the order active and, in the unlikely event that it is filled before the closing bell, shall update Outcomes.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 1, 2017
There are no prospective new positions on my desk this morning.
A short call option on my SU position, the $30 strike, was assigned overnight, resulting in short shares of the stock being placed in my account. I sold them for a loss after the opening bell. I won’t update the analysis until the entire position has been wound down.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 1, 2017
I have no prospective entry trades for Wednesday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2017
I entered five new positions timed to coincide with earnings announcements: BBY, LOW, CRM and MYL.
My attempted exits of GM and SU have not been filled. I shall update Outcomes after the closing bell if the orders should go through.
I analyzed TRCO but found the trade to be so ridiculous that I rejected it with scornful laughter.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2017
Tribune Media Co. (TRCO)
TRCO publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 2.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
TRCO’s IV stands in the 30th percentile of its annual range and the 99th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Mylan N.V. (MYL)
Update 3/14/2017: MYL rose sharply after earnings were published and the declined beginning three days later. I exited at 15.6% of maximum potential profit, an early management of the position that evaded what looked to be a movement in the direction of loss. The price remains above the pre-announcement level.
Shares rose by 2.1% over 14 days or a 55% annual rate. The options position produced a 29.9% yield on debit for a +780% annual rate
MYL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 39%, which is tripple VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
MYL’s IV stands in the 33rd percentile of its annual range and the 81st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
salesforce.com inc. (CRM)
Update 3/8/2017: CRM rose sharply after earnings were published, staying in a sideways pattern long enough for time decay and falling implied volatility to produce sufficient profit for an exit, at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares rose by 11.0% over eight days, or a +499% annual rate. Tue options positon produced a 36.0% yield on debit for a +1,640% annual rate
CRM publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 2.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CRM’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 60th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW)
Update 4/22/2017: LOW gapped sharply to the upside after earnings were published, moving it into unprofitable territory, where it stayed for the rest of its lifespan. I unwound the position piecemeal, avoiding assignment by exiting the short call spread embedded in the iron fly on April 7 and retaining the short put spread, which was untradeable because of very low premium. The puts expired on April 22.
For the entire life of the position, shares showed a net rise of 3.6% over 53 days, or a +25% annual rate. The options position produced a 31.3% loss on debit for a -216% annual rate.
LOW publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.
Implied volatility stands at 267%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
LOW’s IV stands in the 60th percentile of its annual range and the 77th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
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