International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
Update 2/7/2017: IBM goes ex-dividend on Feb. 8 and I exited for a loss to avoid the chance of assignment. The share price rose sharply after earnings were published, pushing the price beyond the profitable zone for my iron fly options spreads.
Shares rose by 7.1% over 19 days, or a +136% annual rate. The options position produced a 27.1% loss on debit for a -520% annual rate.
IBM publishes earnings today after the closing bell.
I shall be analyzing AXP and IBM for trades timed to coincide with earnings announcements.
GE, which was on the Prospects list, continues to have overly low implied volatility, at the 11th percentile of its annual range and the 15th percentile of its most recent broad movement, and I shall give it no further consideration.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 19, 2017
I have three prospective earnings play on my desk for Thursday: AXP, GE and IBM.
I have entered a position on UNP timed to coincide with an earnings announcement.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 18, 2017
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Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)
Update 2/8/2017: UNP gapped up after earnings were published and rose a bit more. It then declined several days later, remaining slightly above the boundary of profitability. I exited nine days before the final trading day for the options used to construct the position,
Shares rose by 3.7% over 21 days, or a 64% annual rate. The options position produced a 20.0% loss on debit for a -348% annual rate.
UNP publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall be doing an analysis and possibly a trade in UNP today.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 18, 2017
I shall be looking at a potential earnings play, the rail company UNP.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 17, 2017
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Update 2/8/2017: USB rose after earnings were published and remained above the limit of the profit zone thereafter. I exited nine days before the position’s options traded for the last time.
Shares rose by 5.0% over 22 days, or an 82% annual rate. The options position produced a 35.5% loss on debit for a -1,620% annual rate.
USB publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
Update 1/25/2017: GS began declining before earnings were announced and continued for a few days thereafter. It then retraced a portion of the decline in what has largely been a sideways move. It hit my exit point — 25% of maximum potential profit — and I exited.
Shares declined by 1.6% over eight days, or a -73% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +1,518% annual rate
GS publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
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