3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 5140s. Elliott Wave Theory: The middle subwave — wave B — is continuing within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on April 23.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways with a downward lean, reaching into the 5110s, until the PCE price index was released, and then shot up to the 5140s in the span of two minutes, subsequently retreating back to the 5120s.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory, the rise that began on April 25 is a B wave, the middle wave of a 4th-wave downward correction that began on April 23. What does the rapid rise mean?

It depends. If the A wave that began on April 23 has three subwaves, then the 4th-wave correction is taking the form of a Flat and the extent of the B wave’s retracement of the A wave is normal behavior. If it has five subwaves, the correction is taking the form of a Zigzag and the outsized retracement beyond the start of the A wave violates a rule of Elliott Wave Theory, requiring that the analysis be revised.

The table below provides a close-up of the correction so far,, with the two A-wave analyses, in green for the Flat scenario and red for the Zigzag scenario.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9 a.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

If the Flat scenario turns out to be the best match to the reality of the chart, then the principal analysis is unchanged from yesterday: Wave 4 is in its middle subwave, wave B. If the Zigzag scenario turns out to be the best match, then the new principal analysis will be that the 4th-wave downward correction ended on April 25 and a 5th-wave uptrend began.

For now I’m staying with the Flat correction scenario (the green marking on the chart). If the rising wave that began on April 25 turns out to have three subwaves, then that was the right call: Wave 4 is still underway. If rising wave has five subwaves, then Wave 4 ended on April 25 and wave 5 is underway.

What are the alternatives? The main ambiguity is covered in the discussion above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Uptrending wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-6}, which is in a declining subwave, wave 4{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its middle subwave, wave B{-8}

Alternative Analysis:

• Uptrending wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-6}, which is in an uptrend, wave 5{-7}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 26, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose back into the 5080s during the session. Applying Elliott Wave Theory to the chart pattern, I see two possible interpretations: Either the rise is the middle subwave — a B wave — of the 4th-wave downtrend that began on April 23 from 5128.75, or the 4th-wave downtrend ended today at the session low, 5022.25, and a low-degree 5th wave uptrend has begun. Whether it has begun or lies in the future, that 5th wave uptrend when complete will mark the end of the 1st subwave within the larger 5th-wave uptrend that began on April 18.

I’m going with the 4th-wave-continues interpretation because what might be read as a middle B-wave in the 5th-wave-began interpretation seems overly small and therefore less likely.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways overnight, in the 5070s and 5080s, until the latest Gross Domestic Product advance estimate was released, sending the prices tumbling into the 5030s.

What does it mean? The magnitude of the decline compared to the prior rise, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, suggests that the rise is a 3rd wave one degree larger than I had previously labeled it, and that the decline is a 4th wave of that same larger degree. On the chart the waves under discussion are labeled rising wave 3{-7} and falling wave 4{-7}, with the subscripts in curly brackets denoting the waves relationship to the Intermediate wave, which is presently wave 5{0} and which began in December 2018.

The waves of the {-7} degree are subwaves of a rising 1st subwave within a still larger 5th-wave uptrend that began on April 18. The 1st subwave will be followed by a 2nd wave downward correction as the larger 5th wave works its way higher.

What are the alternatives? The change in degree is an example of the ambiguity I discussed in yesterday’s post. Such ambiguity in the degree of subaves is always the case early in a wave’s progress. There may be further ambiguities that become apparent as the 5th-wave uptrend continues.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Uptrending wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-6}, which is in a declining subwave, wave 4{-7}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 25, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined during the session, reaching back into the 5080s. The decline is a subwave of the rising 1st wave within a 5th-wave uptrend that began on April 18. The declining subwave is wave 4{-8} on the chart and will soon be followed by a rising 5th wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures the S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, reaching into the 5120s.

What does it mean? The rise carried the price of what had been labeled a low-degree 4th wave above the end of the preceding 1st wave. That breaks a rule of Elliott Wave Theory, and I’ve altered the analysis to match the reality of the chart.

Under the new principal analysis, the downward 4th-wave correction that began on March 31 ended on April 18, and a 5th-wave uptrend began. The 5th wave is in its 1st subwave, and that subwave is in its third of five waves.

Here are the waves under discussion as they appear on the chart, with the wave number followed by a subscript in curly brackets denoting how many degrees distant the wave is from Intermediate degree within the fractal structure of the chart. See the “Reading the chart” section below for more on the fractal structure.

From smaller to larger, under the new analysis the waves in progress are wave 3{-7} within wave 1{-6} within wave 5{-5}, all rising waves.

Fifth waves often carry the price beyond the end of the preceding 3rd wave — wave 3{-5} at 5333.50 in this case — and sometimes considerably beyond. And sometimes a 5th wave is truncated, ending below the end of the 3rd wave.

When wave 5{-5} is complete, it will also signal the end of its parent, wave 3{-4}, and the beginning of a 4th-wave downward correction one degree larger than the March 31 correction just ended.

What are the alternatives? The ambiguity, as is always the case early in a wave’s progress, is the degree of the subwaves. I’ve labeled the three subwaves of the uptrends initial wave as being seven degrees smaller — 3{-7} — than the Intermediate degree. But they could be a degree lower — 3{-8} — or a degree higher — 3{-6}. The course of the uptrend over time will resolve that ambiguity.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Uptrendng wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-6}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave 3{-7}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, breaking above 5110. In Elliott Wave Theory, the 4th-wave upward correction that began on April 18 is working through its end game, as described below in this morning’s analysis.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5030s to the 5060s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise as a the third and final subwave — wave C — of a 4th-wave upward correction of low degree that began on March 18. Wave C will have five subwaves total and is presently in its 5th subwave.

On the chart the present position, smaller to larger, is wave 5{-11} within wave C{-10} within wave 4{-9}, with each wave number being followed by a subscript in curly brackets showing how many degrees removed the wave is from the Intermediate degree, presently a 5th wave that began in December 2018.

The low-degree 4th wave is buried four degrees deep within a larger 4th-wave downward correction — wave 4{-5} on the chart — which began on March 31. The end of the low-degree 4th wave (wave 4{-10}) will travel up the fractal structure and signal the end of the larger degree 4th wave (wave 4{-5}).

The larger 4th-wave downward correction will be followed by a 5th-wave uptrend that will end the 3rd wave (wave 3{-4}) that encompasses it and will begin a larger 4th-wave downward correction.

What are the alternatives? Often Elliott Wave Analysis comes down to the question, “Does it look right?”. The low-degree 4th-wave correction is larger than the comparable wave one degree larger. There’s no rule against it in Elliott Wave Theory. But still…

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 4{-5}.
• Downtrending wave 4{-5} is in its final subwave, falling wave C{-6}, which is in its last subwave, falling wave 5{-7}.
• Within wave 5{-7}, wave 5{-8} is underway and is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-9}.
• Wave 4{-9} is in its final subwave, wave C{-10}, which in turn is in its fifth and final subwave, wave 5{-11}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 5270s. In Elliott Wave Theory, the rise is the third and final subwave, wave C{-10}, within the upward correction that began on April 18, wave 4{-9}, is underway. It may have ended at the session peak, or maybe not.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gradually after trading resumed overnight, from just below 5010 into the 5030s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory views the rise is a low-degree 4th-wave upward correction buried deep within the final subwave, wave C, of a much larger downward correction that began on March 31. The smaller wave, which began on April 18, is in its 3rd of five subwaves. The smllert 4th wave will be followed by a downtrending 5th wave that will complete the correction and also two downtrending 5th degrees, each one degree higher.

Move one degree higher, the end of those 5th waves will also trigger the end of the final subwave of the larger correction. A 5th-wave uptrend will follow and likely will last for weeks before reaching its end, which will trigger a still larger 4th-wave downward correction.

That’s a long way of saying that all of those waves are interconnected, each a part of a complex fractal structure. When one wave reaches its end, even a relatively small one like the 4th wave that began on April 18, the event sends shockwaves up and down the fractal structure.

The fractal structure behaves like the Butterfly Effect in Chaos Theory — “When a butterfly flutters its wings in one part of the world, it can eventually cause a hurricane in another,” as the mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz put it.

See the “What does Elliott Wave Theory say?” section bellow for an inventory of waves now underway, with subscripts in curly brackets denoting the waves relation to Intermediate degree.

What are the alternatives? Friday’s alternative — that the low-degree 4th wave has ended and the rising 5th wave has begun — seems less likely, given the subwave structure, although I can’t rule it out entirely.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 4{-5}.
• Downtrending wave 4{-5} is in its final subwave, falling wave C{-6}, which is in its last subwave, falling wave 5{-7}.
• Within wave 5{-7}, wave 5{-8} is underway and is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-9}.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/13/2022, 3502 (up) (futures), 3491.58 (up) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures drifted lower during the session while remaining above the overnight low, 4963.50. No change in this morning’s conclusions based on Elliott Wave Theory. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from the 4960s into the 5050s.

What does it mean? Applying Elliott Wave Theory, I’ve concluded that the decline that began on April 15 is in its next-to-the-last subwave, and one last decline will bring it to an end.

What are the alternatives? The chart can also be interpreted as the mid-April decline having reached its endpoint with the overnight low, 4963.50, and the rise that followed is the beginning of an uptrend. The principal analysis — correction within a downtrend — matches the chart better, in my opinion. Nonetheless, the alternative is a viable possibility.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses, as they appear on the chart. Each wave number is followed by a subscript in curly brackets denoting the wave’s distance from Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree wave is 5{0}, and it began in December 2018.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 4{-5}.
• Downtrending wave 4{-5} is in its final subwave, falling wave C{-6}, which is in its last subwave, falling wave 5{-7}.
• Within wave 5{-7}, wave 5{-8} is underway and is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-9}.

Alternative analysis:

• Wave 4{-5}, a downward correction, ended overnight on April 18, along with its subwaves, waves C{-6}, 5{-7}, 5{-8} and 5{-9}.
• Uptrending wave 5{-5} is underway and is in its early stages.

.

We Are Here.

These are the larger waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 19, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell slightly during the session, reaching into the 5030s. The lower low, in Elliott Wave Theory, confirms that the declining 5th wave that began on April 15 is still underway. The wave is labled wave 5{-7} on the chart, which I’ve updated.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures meandered sideways overnight, between the 5060s and the 5080s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The final subwave of a 4th-wave downward correction that began on March 31 is close to its end. Wave 4 will be followed by a 5th-wave uptrend that is likely to last for a few weeks, although it could be much swifter or take much longer than that.

Here are the waves now underway, as they are labeled on the chart, with the wave number followed by a subscript in curly brackets that denotes the wave’s distance from the Intermediate degree within the fractal structure of the chart.

Smaller to larger: Declining wave 5{-8}, the final subwave within falling wave 5{-7}, the final subwave within falling wave C{-6}, the final subwave within the downward correction, wave 4{-5}. There’s quite a bit of finality at this moment in the chart.

Of course, the waves underway continue higher. The above waves are all encompassed by a series of rising waves, wave 3{-4}, the middle subwave of wave 3{-3}, which in turn is the middle subwave of wave 3{-2}, the middle subwave of wave 5{-1}, which in turn is the final subwave within wave 5{0}, the Intermediate wave that began in December 2018.

So yes, there’s finality in the smaller corners of the fractal structure, but at the larger end of things, there is quite a bit of upside that will carry us forward beyond the end of 2024 and perhaps much further.

But back to the details. The correction — wave 4{-5} — has taken the from of a Flat, with three subwaves within the A wave. Within that pattern, the C wave tends to retrace somewhere between 100% and 169% of the preceding A wave of the same degree. I’ve marked that range on the chart, keeping in mind that those retracement boundaries represent a tendency, not a firm rule. The price is presently close to the lower boundary of that range.

What are the alternatives? The S&P 500 futures are bottom fishing, which means that any low can be interpreted as being the end of the decline. My principal analysis, described above, concludes that wave 5[-8} is still underway and is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}. An alternative interpretation sees wave 4{-9} as underway, the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 5{-8}. As always with Elliott Wave Theory, there are ambiguities. At that small degree, they have little significance.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 18, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The price movement overnight and during the session has clarified the count within the final subwave, wave C, of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on March 31. In the discussion that follows I’ll use the labeling system that appears on the chart, with the wave number followed by a subscript in curly brackets that indicate how many degrees removed from Elliott Wave Theory’s Intermediate degree.

Elliott Wave Theory, when applied to a closer view of the chart shows that wave C{-6} is in its 5th and final subwave — wave 5{-7} on the chart — which in turn is in its final subwave — wave 5{-8}. It’s not marked on the chart, but wave 5{-8} has completed its second subwave — wave 2{-9} — and has begun the middle subwave — wave 3{-9}.

Waves of the {-9} degree can begin and end within a day, so at that level things are happening fast. The final wave of the 4th wave downward correction is likely within days of reaching its end.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued its bottom fishing overnight, dropping into the 5070s, with each lower low potentially being the end of the decline that began on March 31 and the beginning of an equally significant rise.

What does it mean? According to Elliott Wave Theory, the decline is a 4th-wave downward correction, and it is in the final stage of its 3rd and final subwave, wave C. When wave C is complete, it will also be the end of the 4th-wave correction and the beginning of a 5th-wave uptrend.

The correction is taking the form of a Flat, and typically wave C of that sort of correction will travel somewhere between the length of the preceding wave A and 1.65 times that length. The A-wave had a length of 142. Wave C began from 5285. So typically, wave C will end somewhere between 5153 and 5060.70.

The overnight low is well below the upper boundary of the price target range and is only 10 points above the lower boundary. I’ve marked the boundaries of the target price range on the chart with red dashed lines.

What are the alternatives? The 20th-century New York Yankees baseball team catcher Yogi Berra famously said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” The principal analysis today says, “It ain’t over.” The alternative analysis says, “It’s over.” It’s a typical ambiguity when a wave reaches its bottom-fishing stage.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.
• Downtrending wave 4{-5} is in its final subwave, falling wave C{-6}, which is in its last subwave, falling wave 5{-7}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 17, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. This morning’s analysis interpreted the chart as showing that the 4th-wave downward correction that began on March 31 had ended, and a 5th-wave uptrend had begun.

In the alternative analysis, I asked what could possibly go wrong with the principal analysis. My answer was, the price could reverse during session, moving lower. A few hours later, the price did just that.

I’ve promoted the alternative analysis — the 4th wave correction is still underway — back to principal analysis. I think the 4th-wave correction is nearing its end, but not quite yet. Unless, the new low is the actual end.

As a leading AI, Anthropic’s Claude 3 Opus, which is capable of doing Elliott Wave Analysis, said after analyzing GLD the other day, “Confidence in the accuracy of this analysis is moderate, as Elliott Wave Theory is a subjective tool and open to interpretation. The wave count should be continually reassessed as new price data becomes available. It’s crucial to use other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis in conjunction with Elliott Wave Theory to make more informed trading decisions.”

I meditated for awhile on those wise words before launching into this afternoon’s analysis.

Based on the subwaves of the C-wave within the 4th-wave, I think the correction is nearing its end, but it’s not there quite yet. Unless, the new low is the actual end. For what it’s worth, Ehlers Stochastic, a technical analysis metric that I find to be reliable, is oversold and so has the S&P 500 futures poised for a rise.

I’ve retained this morning’s chart and added a new one with the revised analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight and then reversed to the upside.

What does it mean? Applying Elliott Wave Theory: The 5th-wave decline on April 15, from 5213.25 to 5081.25, has five subwaves, suggesting that the overnight low is the end of that 5th wave, its parent C wave and, up one more degree, the 4th-wave downward correction that began on March 31.

If that count continues to match the reality of the chart, then a 5th-wave uptrend has begun.

The 5th wave uptrend will have five subwaves. There are few guidelines or rules for 5th waves. They can extend and rise a long distance beyond the end of the preceding 3rd wave — 5333.50 in this case. Or they can be truncated, ending before reaching that point.

Like many Elliott Waves, 5th waves tend to adhere to the Fibonacci retracement levels. For example a truncated 5th wave may end at a 61.8% retracement of the preceding 3rd wave, 5229.02 on this chart. Or it may expand and reach a 161.8% retracement, 5503.53 on the chart. These are tendencies, not rules, and often 5th waves will end at non-Fibonacci levels.

I’ve placed a Fibonacci retracement ladder, for the preceding 3rd wave on the chart, in red.

What are the alternatives? What could possibly go wrong? The price could reverse during the session, moving lower than 5081.25. If that happens, then the 4th-wave downward correction is not yet complete and the 5th-wave uptrend has not yet begun.

On the chart: Here are the waves under discussion as they are labeled on the chart, smaller to larger, with subscripts in curly brackets denoting the wave’s distance from Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate wave is 5{0}. It began in December 2018. The waves: Wave 5{-7} within wave C{-6} within the downward correction, wave 4{-5}. If the alternative analysis is correct, that’s where things stand now. But if the principal analysis is correct, the ongoing waves are wave 1{-6} within uptrending wave 5{-5}.

[Outdated analysis: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses. [Note: Outdated analysis. The Alternative Analysis has been promoted to Principal Analysis.]

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.
• Uptrending wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-6}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Downtrending wave 4{-5} is in its final subwave, falling wave C{-6}, which is in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave 4{-7}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 16, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 5090s. Applying Elliott Wave Theory, the velocity of the decline suggests that the final subwave, wave C, within the 4th-wave downward correction has begun. An alternative analysis is that the session’s decline is a wave one degree smaller, a subwave within wave 3, which in turn is a subwave of the larger 5th-wave decline.

Here are the waves as labeled on the chart, with wave numbers followed by subscripts in curly brackets showing each wave’s distance from the Intermediate wave that began in December 2018 and contains everything that has happened since.

Now underway, smaller to larger:

• Principal Analysis
  • Wave 5{-7} within wave C{-6} within the down correction, wave 4{-5}.
• Alternative Analysis
  • Wave 3{-8} within wave 3{-7} within wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5}.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose after trading resumed overnight, from the 5160s to the 5210s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory considers the rise to be the next-to-the last subwave — wave 4 — within a larger declining final subwave — wave C — within a 4th-wave downward correction that began on March 31. When that final subwave is complete, it will also be the end of the wave 4 correction and a 5th-wave uptrend will begin.

On the chart, the waves under discussion, from small to large, are labeled rising wave 4{-7} within falling wave C{-6} within the downward correction, wave 4{-5}. The waves are designated by their number and with a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the distance of the wave from the Intermediate degree. For example, within the fractal structure of the chart, wave 4{-5} is five degrees smaller than the current wave of Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, which began in December 2018.

Fourth wave corrections tend to end within the range of the 4th subwave within the preceding 3rd wave of the same degree. Wave 4{-5] has so far moved in line with that tendency, with its low point so far only slightly below the lower boundary of that trend. The trend boundaries are shown on the chart as dashed lines in red.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible that what I’ve labeled as wave 4{-7} is actually a subwave of an ongoing wave 3{-7}, although given wave 3{-7}’s internal structure, it seems unlikely to me.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate Degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 3{-2}, 3{-3} and 3{-4} are underway, as is the smallest wave labeled on the chart, wave 3{-5}.
• Downtrending wave 4{-5} is in its final subwave, falling wave C{-6}, which is in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave 4{-7}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 15, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.