The Week Ahead: Employment, income, outlays, manufacturing, trade

In a reversal of T.S. Eliot, next week will begin with a whimper — the U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday — and will end with a bang — the always much anticipated employment situation report, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The employment report will be previewed on Thursday  by the private-sector ADP employment report, out at 8:15 a.m.

Three other major reports  will be published during the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Thursday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

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Live: Friday, May 26, 2017

5/26 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

Here’s the scorecard for the day before the markets close for a three-day weekend.

New positions: None. I looked at USO but didn’t like the grid because I couldn’t construct an iron fly structure with both short strike prices sufficiently near the at-the-money point.

Rolls to new expirations: One. I exited my EWZ position that expires June 2, rolling it forward to a June 16 expiration, collecting more premium in the process.

Exits for a profit: Three. COSTGME and BIG, all of them earnings plays.

Exits for a loss: One. The loss, on BBY, was also an earnings play.

I have exit orders in place on AAPL, CPB and MRVL that have not yet been filled. I shall leave them active until the closing bell and update this post if any of the trades go through.

A productive day of trading. Over the weekend, look for The Week Ahead and the first Live update for Tuesday. And I shall return to my trading desk (well, trading sofa, really) on Tuesday. Enjoy!

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COST Analysis

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)

Update 5/26/2017: COST gapped to the outside after earnings were published and then retraced a portion of the rise. I exited a week before options expiration, at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 2.0% over one day, or a +746% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +12,102.63% annual rate.


COST publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 2.

Implied volatility stands at 19%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

COST’s IV stands in the 52nd percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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MRVL Analysis

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL)

Update 5/30/2017: MRVL rose sharply after earnings were published, remaining high today despite an intra-day decline. I exited at 42.2% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 3.2% over five days, or a +235% annual rate. The options position produced a +73.1% yield on debit for a +5,339% annual rate.


MRVL publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 22 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 39%, which is 3.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MRVL’s IV stands in the 49th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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BIG Analysis

Big Lots Inc. (BIG)

Update 5/26/2017: BIG rose sharply to the upside after earnings were published and then whipsawed, giving most of the gain back. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

From entry the day before to exit, shares produced at net rise of 0.4%, or a +128% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +12,122% annual rate.


BIG publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 22 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 43%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BIG’s IV stands in the 67th percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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GME Analysis

GameStop Corp. (GME)

Update 5/26/2017: GME continued its downtrend after earnings were published, retracing a bit of the decline as the day wore on. I exited a week before options expiration at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 5.3% over one day, or a -1,946% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.1% yield on debit for a +12,088% annual rate.


GME publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on June 2.

Implied volatility stands at 55%, which is 5.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GME’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

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MDT Analysis

Medtronic plc. Ordinary Shares (MDT)

Update 5/25/2017: MDT whipsaws after earnings were published, rising and then falling, and then rising again to recover most of the decline. I exited at slightly below my entry price, at 40.1% of maximum potential profit.

From entry the day before to exit shares had a net declined by 0.5%, or a -176% annual rate. The optons position produced a 66.9% yeld on debit for a +24,417% annual rate.


MDT publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 2.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MDT’s IV stands in the 37th percentile of its annual range and the 84th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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PVH Analysis

PVH Corp. (PVH)

Update 6/6/2017: PVH gapped sharply to the upside after earnings were published and then slow retraced about 60% of the rise. I exited at my target price, 25.0% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 3.0% over the 13-day lifespan of the position, or a +85% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +936% annual rate.


PVH publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time 23 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PVH’s IV stands in the 53rd percentile of its annual range and the 84th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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ANF Analysis

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)

ANF publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of monthly options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 2.

Implied volatility stands at 71%, which is 6.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ANF’s IV stands in the 91st percentile of its annual range and the 97th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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