PANW Analysis

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)

Update 6/2/2017: PANW gapped sharply higher after earnings were published, putting it beyond reach of profitability in the week before options expiration. I took the loss.

Shares rose by 16.6% over two days, or a +3,029% annual rate. Tye options position produced a -40.3% loss on debit for a -7,354% annual rate.


PANW publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PANW’s IV stands in the 84th percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

HPE Analysis

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.  (HPE)

HPE publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

HPE’s IV stands in the 17th percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement. A series of large volatility spikes in late March and early April brought the annual range percentile down.

Read More »

DG Analysis

Dollar General Corp. (DG)

Update 6/2/2017: DG gapped to the upside after earnings were published and continued to rise the next day. I took the loss with a week left before expiration.

Shares rose b7 9.3% over two days, or a +1,699% annual rate. The options position produced a -37.7% loss on debit for a -6,888% annual rate.


DG publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DG’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the 98th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

CIEN Analysis

Ciena Corp. (CIEN)

Update 6/2/2017: CIEN rose sharply into unprofitable territory, with little hope of becoming profitable in the week before expiration. I took the loss.

Shares showed a net rise of 17.2% over two days, or a +3,129% annual rate. The options position produced a -47.3% loss on debit for a -8,632% annual rate.


CIEN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CIEN’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

BOX Analysis

Box Inc. (BOX)

Update 6/5/2017: BOX gapped to the upside after earnings were published, stayed high for a second day and then dropped back to only slightly above its pre-earnings price. I exited at 25% of maximum profit, my target level.

Shares showed a net rise of 4.7% over five days, or a +341% annual rate. The options position produced a 38.4% yield on debit for a +2,655% annual rate.


BOX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BOX’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and at the peek of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

GLNG Analysis

Golar LNG Ltd. (GLNG)

Update 6/9/2017: GLNG declined for seven trading days after earnings were published. It bumped up a dollar to the upside on June 9, but with expiration a week away I judged that it had insufficient chance of reaching profitability, and so I exited for a loss.

Shares declined by 13.0% over 10 days, or a -476% annual rate. The options position produced a 53.8% loss on debit for a -1,967% annual rate


GLNG publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 51%, which is five times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GLNG’s IV stands in the 15th percentile of its annual range and the peak percentile of its most recent broad movement. The annual range peak was reached in July 2016, nearly a year ago, so what we’re seeing today is a volatility recovery within a long-running downtrend.

Read More »

KORS Analysis

Michael Kors Holdings Inc. (KORS)

Update 6/2/2017: KORS gapped to the downside after earnings were published and then moved sideways. I judged that there was little chance of an improvement in the week before expiration and took the loss.

Shares declined by 8.3% over three days, or a -1,011% annual rate. The options position produced a 7.0% annual rate for a -647.98% annual rate.


KORS publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 9.

Implied volatility stands at 49%, which is 4.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KORS’s IV stands in the 79th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

ADI Analysis

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)

Update 5/31/2017: ADI gapped to the upside after earnings were published and the pulled back. I exited at 27.1% of maximum potential profit.

Shares produced a net rise of 1.9% over one day, or a +692% annual rate. The options position produced a 37.2% yield on debit for a +13,586% annual rate.


ADI publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 17 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 3.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ADI’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 80th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »