THO Analysis

Thor Industries Inc. (THO)

Update 6/13/2017: Shares gapped up by more than $12 after earnings were published, fell slightly and then rose again. After unsuccessfully trying to exit for a profit for three days I exited for a loss.

Shares showed a net rise of 11.3% over eight days, or a +517% annual rate. The options position produced a 29.8% loss on debit for a -1,362% annual rate.

THO publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on June 16.

Implied volatility stands at 50%, which is 5.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

THO’s IV stands in the 97th percentile of its annual range and the 81st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $95.10.

Premium: $7.64 Expire OTM  
THO-iron fly Strike Odds Delta
Long 110.00 90.2% 12
Break-even 102.64
Short 95.00 51.8% 53
Short 95.00 48.2% 47
Break-even 87.64
Long 80.00 90.2% 8

The premium is 51% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 1:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered an order on THO as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $95.14.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 5, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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