FDX Analysis

FedEx Corp. (FDX)

Update 6/21/2017: FDX declined  slightly after earnings were published. A sharp drop in implied volatility pushed profit to the 33% of maximum potential profit, allowing me a quick exit. 

shares declined by 1.2% in a day, or a -430% annual rate. The options position produced a +49.0% yield on debit for a +17,879% annual rate.

FDX publishes earnings on Tuesday after the market close.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 30.

Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 2.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FDX’s IV stands in the 67th percentile of its annual range and the 99th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $209.64.

Premium: $8.79 Expire OTM  
FDX-iron fly Strike Odds Delta
Long 227.50 91.2% 10
Break-even 218.79
Short 210.00 52.2% 50
Short 210.00 47.8% 50
Break-even 201.29
Long 192.50 90.2% 9

The premium is 50% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 1:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered an order on FDX as described above.

It is one of the most perfectly balanced positions I’ve built in terms of wing width, premium vs. wing width and risk vs. reward. No idea what thats worth, but it appeals to my aesthetic sense.

The stock at the time of entry was priced at $209.67.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 20, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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