HAIN Analysis

Hain Celestial Group Inc. (HAIN)

Update 6/22/2017: HAIN underwent a $3 whipsaw after earnings were published, with the net impact of a decline from its pre-earnings close. A sharp drop in implied volatility allowed an exit at 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 2.5% over a day, entry to exit, or a +917% annual rate. The options position produced a +33.2% yield on debit for a +12,122% annual rate.


HAIN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 30.

Implied volatility stands at 57%, which is 5.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

HAIN’s IV stands in the 69th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $33.04.

Premium: $3.65 Expire OTM  
HAIN-iron fly Strike Odds Delta
Long 41.00 92.2% 10
Break-even 36.65
Short 33.00 52.8% 54
Puts
Short 33.00 47.4% 46
Break-even 28.65
Long 25.00 91.4% 6

The premium is 46% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 1.2:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered an order on HAIN as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $33.04.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 21, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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