The Week Ahead: A semi-holiday, prices, retail, Yellen

Monday is a federal holiday, Columbus Day, in the United States, but not a stock market holiday. Although the federal government, banks and the bond market will be closed, the stock exchanges and equity futures markets will be open for business as usual.

Two price reports lead the week in economics data, the consumer price index on Friday and the producer price index final demand index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The retail sales report will be published on Friday, also at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the meeting on Sept. 19-20 will be made public on Wednesday at 2 p.m. At that meeting the committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, at 1% to 1.25%, and to begin unwinding its holdings obtained to stave off economic collapse during the Great Recession of 2007-2008, a process none as “balance sheet normalization”.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Sunday, Oct. 15, at 9 a.m. to the G30 International Banking Seminar in Washington.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.


The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Events arranged by day:


Monday: Columbus Day holiday: Stocks and equity futures trade, bonds don’t, banks and the federal government close.

Wednesday: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the producer price index final demand report, each at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The consumer price index and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and 5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).



In addition to Chair Yellen, these top officials in the Federal Reserve system have scheduled public appearances:

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell addresses the Institute for International Finance Spotlight on Emerging Markets in Washington on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. His topic: “Prospects or Emerging Market Economies in a Normalizing Global Economy”.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard takes part in a panel discussion at the Conference in Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy in Washington, on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. The event will be streamed live here.

All three are members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Other FOMC members taking to the podium are Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Tuesday and Friday, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Friday.

An FOMC alternate, Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, speaks on Thursday

One other of the Fed glitterati, Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren, has scheduled an appearance on Friday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 7, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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