The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, global trade, homes

The first look at gross domestic product for the 3rd quarter will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. This release, the advance estimate, will be followed by two additional revisions.

Appetite for big-ticket items will be quantified on Wednesday with the release of the durable goods orders report, and the report on international trade in goods will be out on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m.

Also impacting the week: New home sales on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and the Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash release on Tuesday at 9:45 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The PMI composite flash release at 9:45 a.m.

Wednesday:  Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m., new home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., the pending home sales index at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP at 8:30 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 20, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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