The Week Ahead: The FOMC, jobs, and a new Fed chair?

The Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting, announcing any decisions on interest rates at 2 p.m. New York time.

The Labor Department’s employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, considered to me President Trump’s most likely pick during the week to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, gives introductory remarks to the Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His remarks will be delivered by pre-recorded video. Bloomberg News reported on Powell’s prospects.

If no black swans come swooping down, those three events will define the markets’ week.

Other major releases: Personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

A private sector report, the ADP employment report, will provide a sneak preview of the employment situation numbers on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Friday

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Wednesday

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The employment cost index at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the PMI manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing index at 10 a.m., construction spending at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m., and factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 28, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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