Live: Monday, October 30, 2017

10/30 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I have exited three positions and updated their analyses with results: MO, and INTC.

I did a full analysis of ETN and partial of BP, declining both trades.

10/30 – 1:55 p.m. New York time

I have updated the analyses of my three exits:  MO, and INTC.

10/30 – 9:50 a.m. New York time

i shall do a full analysis ETN later today. BP meets my criteria in all respects except for implied volatility as a multiple of the VIX, coming in at 1.7, well below my cut-off of double. I shall monitor BP throughout the day and make a final decision later about further analysis.

I have exited MO for a profit and T and INTC for losses.

10/29 – 6:35 p.m. New York time

After further analysis my two finalists for a full analysis on Monday are BP and ETN.

The path forward for either depends upon whether the bid/ask spread narrows. BP’s spread now stands at 11.2% and ETN’s at 10.7%. My standards call for 10% or narrower.

In addition, BP’s implied volatility as a multiple of the VIX stands at 1.7. During busy periods, such as peak earnings season, I require double or better. ETN’s multiple is 2.0, so it qualifies by the skin of its metaphorical teeth.

10/29 – 10 a.m. New York time

None of my six prospective trades for acton on Monday is free from blemishes.

Only ADM has a sufficiently narrow bid/ask spread to meet my standards, and ADM joins AET and CMI in having higher expectations for earnings surprises than I prefer. BP and MA have lower implied volatility than I like in relation to the VIX, which measures IV on the S&P 500.

The metrics tend to change on acton day, and I shall be checking them again on Monday.

The pattern of problematic metrics occurs among my 29 prospects throughout the week. Only five seem problem-free at this point: CTSH and GRMN on Tuesday, and ADP, QCOM and RACE on Wednesday. Their condition could change, of course.

Here’s the full list of prospects, selected from 81 large-cap stocks and unscreened for earnings surprise likelihood, bid/ask spread, tradability of the grid and magnitude of implied volatility in relation to the VIX.

sym action earnings date meridian
ADM 10/30 10/31 am
AET 10/30 10/31 am
BP 10/30 10/31 am
CMI 10/30 10/31 am
ETN 10/30 10/31 am
MA 10/30 10/31 am
AGN 10/31 11/1 am
CTSH 10/31 11/1 am
EA 10/31 10/31 pm
GRMN 10/31 11/1 am
TAP 10/31 11/1 am
ABC 11/1 11/2 am
ADP 11/1 11/2 am
BABA 11/1 11/2 am
CTRP 11/1 11/1 pm
FB 11/1 11/1 pm
MNST 11/1 11/2 xm
PXD 11/1 11/1 pm
QCOM 11/1 11/1 pm
RACE 11/1 11/2 am
SYMC 11/1 11/1 pm
AAPL 11/2 11/2 pm
AIG 11/2 11/2 pm
ATVI 11/2 11/2 pm
BRK/B 11/2 11/3 xm
CBS 11/2 11/2 pm
SBUX 11/2 11/2 pm
CAH 11/3 11/6 am
CVS 11/3 11/6 am

The “action” column contains the date I may analyze and, perhaps, trade a symbol.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 29-30, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

 

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