Live: Thursday, November 16, 2017

11/16 – 3:35 p.m. New York time

Outcomes: I entered SPLK as an earnings play using shares. I exited my options-based earnings play on CSCO and shares-based plays on WGL, HP, SFS and STNG.

11/16 – 3:30 p.m. New York time

Shares: SPLK posted.

11/16 – 2:55 p.m. New York time

I’ve updated CSCO Analysis with results.

11/16 – 2:25 p.m. New York time

Updated WGL, HP, SFS and STNG with results.

11/16 – 2:20 p.m. New York time

I’ve exited my options position on CSCO for a loss and shall update the analysis with results shortly.

11/16 – 11:05 a.m. New York time

I have exited four shares-based earnings plays: HP and STNG for a profit, WGL for a loss and SFS for the same price that I bought it for. I shall update the analysis before the closing bell.

11/16 – 10:25 a.m. New York time

AMAT once again presented a scheduling problem and is off the table, leaving me with no earnings plays using options.

I have two earnings plays using shares that I plan to trade closer to the closing bell: GLOB and SPLK.

11/15 – 8:30 p.m. New York time

A flawed pack of prospects skittering across my desk tonight. I suspect that Thursday will see one or two new positions, at best, and mostly like none. But I shall remember a wise rule of trading: “Never say never. Then you’ll never be surprised.”

I have one potential earnings play using options as a vehicle for consideration on Thursday: AMAT. With slight expectations of a negative earnings surprise, a direction neutral position is my preferred strategy. And the bid/ask spread at this filing is 22%, way above my preference for single-digit spreads.

Out of my potential shares plays around an earnings announcement, GPS is the only acceptably liquid stock out of six prospects, and it has a negative earnings surprise predictor. For GPS to qualify as a trade, the earnings surprise expectation would need to turn decisively positive.

The other five shares-based earnings plays, those having insufficient liquidity and other problems, are BKE, DCIX, GLOB, SCVL and SPLK.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 15-16, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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