1/3 – 3:10 p.m. New York time
I entered shares positions on RPM and WBA, and exited no positions. I analyzed MON and WBA as options positions but declined the trades.
Month: December 2017
The Week Ahead: Jobs, trade, manufacturing and the FOMC minutes
Monday is New Year’s Day, and markets will be closed in New York, London, Tokyo and Sydney.
The monthly employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, starting off the first week of 2018 with a high-impact report. Simultaneously, another major report, international trade, will also be released.
The employment reporting gets a sneak preview on Thursday at 8:15 a.m. with the private-sector ADP employment report.
One other top report will be out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.
Also, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of its Dec. 13 meeting will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m. At that meeting the FOMC raised the target for the federal funds rate from 1.25% to 1.5%, continuing its gradual tightening as the economy recovers. Two members, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari, dissented, preferring to keep the target unchanged.
Live: Friday, Dec. 29, 2017
12/29 – 12:10 p.m. New York time
UNF continues to be non=trending, with an average directional index (ADX) of 20.5. None of the other symbols under watch have improved sufficiently to qualify as trades. I plan to enter no positions nor to exit any, giving no outcomes for the day.
Live: Thursday, Dec. 28, 2017
Live: Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2017
12/27 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I exited one trade today, NKE, and entered none. I listed, below in this post, potential trades for next week.
Live: Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2017
12/16 – 3:20 p.m. New York tme
I neither entered nor exited positions today. No outcomes, as is common during the week between Christas and the start of the New Year.
The Week Ahead: Holiday week, international trade
Monday is Christmas Day, and markets will be closed in New York, London and Sydney.
One major report will be published during the shortened week, international trade in goods, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
Live: Friday, Dec. 22, 2017
12/22 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
In today’s outcomes, I entered no new positions, exited my options position on NKE and kept my shares position on NKE.
Shares: NKE
NKE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell. I have also placed an options trade on NKE.
NKE’s earnings beat analysts’ expectations, but the price fell after the announcement. I held the position through the Christmas holiday in the hope that there would be a reversal and I could mitigate my loss, and indeed that is what happened when I exited on Dec. 27.
| sym | entry | exit | result ($) | result (%) | entry date | exit date |
| NKE | 64.72 | 63.38 | -1.34 | -2.1% | 12/21 | 12/22 |
| zacks rank | zacks esp | DI spread | ADX | earns est. | earns actual | |
| 3 | 1.21 | 15.72 | 43.63 | 0.4372 | 0.46 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oreogn, Dec. 21, 2017
NKE Analysis
NIKE Inc. (NKE)
Update 12/22/2017: NKE’s earnings eat the Street estimate by 2.3%, coming in at $0.46 per share against the consensus forecast of $0.4372. Shares fell $4.71 in extended hours trading and then recovered by $2.67, falling into a narrow sideways movement. I exited for a loss.
Shares fell by 2.8% over my holding period of less than a day, or a -1,034% annual rate. The options position produced a -10.8% loss for a -3,931% annual rate.
Going into the trade the Zacks earnings surprise predictor shows a 1.21% score in the context of a neutral rank (3), accurately anticipating the actual report.
The trend metrics, however, were less successful. The average directional indicator (ADX) at 43.63 suggested a strong trend, and the directional indicators, with +DI at 29.27 and -DI at 13.55, showed it as an uptrend, missing the decline that actually ensued.
I shall complete this report with the daily movement vs. the expected movements after the number are available.
NKE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on Dec. 29.
Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
NKE’s IV stands in the 96th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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