The Week Ahead: Jobs, trade, manufacturing and the FOMC minutes

Monday is New Year’s Day, and markets will be closed in New York, London, Tokyo and Sydney.

The monthly employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, starting off the first week of 2018 with a high-impact report. Simultaneously, another major report, international trade, will also be released.

The employment reporting gets a sneak preview on Thursday at 8:15 a.m. with the private-sector ADP employment report.

One other top report will be out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.

Also, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of its Dec. 13 meeting will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m. At that meeting the FOMC raised the target for the federal funds rate from 1.25% to 1.5%, continuing its gradual tightening as the economy recovers. Two members, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari, dissented, preferring to keep the target unchanged.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hour workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performs, also called the deliveries times index, fror the ISM manufacturing survey on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Markets closed for New Year’s Day

Wednesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.,  petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m., and factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 30, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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