Live: Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2017

12/12 – 3 p.m. New York time

In today’s outcomes, I entered one new position, a shares position in PAY, and exited none.

12/12 – 2:20 p.m. New York time

PAY saw its direction index cross back to a bullish configuration today, and I have entered a long position using shares.

12/12 – 9:55 a.m. New York time

PAY comes closest to qualifying for today’s agenda, as an earnings play using shares. Yet it falls short on one metric: It’s positive directional index (+DI) is trading far higher than its negative directional index (-DI), a bearish indicator that disqualifies the trade. The gap between the two is 18.7, a distance that could be closed in a day. I’ll check again this afternoon and if the metrics warrant, put PAY on the agenda.

12/11 – 7:25 p.m. New York time

The winter holidays bring a time of happy anticipation. Except for traders, of course, for whom the season is simply dreary, as the markets slow and the pace of opportunity slows to nothing.

There are no prospects on my desk for Tuesday. I have three earnings plays using shares that made it to the finals, but each is flawed and so, unless their metrics change, shall go no further.

ARWR lacks a Zacks rank and has a negative earnings surprise predictor (ESP) of astounding proportions. If the ESP were positive and of that magnitude, I might take it on even without a rank. But I see no way for this symbol to improve sufficiently to meet my standards for the ESP.

CIVI has a low average directional index (ADX) in the 8th percentile of its most recent range, as well having no earnings surprise in sight and reversed (bearish) positive and negative directional indices (+DI, -DI)).

The final and most liquid of the batch is PAY, with a slight chance of a positive earnings surprise. However, it suffers from a DI reversal, setting up a bull/bear contradiction that removes it from consideration.

Out of due diligence I shall check all three on Tuesday to see if the metrics have improved sufficiently. I’m not filled with happy anticipation of that prospect, however.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 11-12, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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