Live: Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017

12/19 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

In today’s outcomes, I placed three trades today, all of them earnings plays, on MU and RHT using options and on WGO using shares. I exited no positions.

I analyzed BB but rejected the trade.

12/19 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

Shares: WGO posted.

12/19 – 3 p.m. New York time

Posted RHT Analysis.

12/19 – 2:40 p.m. New York time

Posted MU Analysis.

12/19 – 2:20 p.m. New York time

Posted BB Analysis.

12/19 – 9:45 a.m. New York time

I have three earnings plays using options on my agenda today: BB, MU and RHT.

A fourth symbol, FDX, has a significant expectation of a negative earnings surprise, but it is in an uptrend. If the trend turns down during the day, I shall restore it to the agenda. but at this point, it is off the table.

I have one earnings play using options on the agenda: WGO. Although it has no expectation of an earnings surprise, it has a bullish Zacks rank and an uptrend, with an ADX of 33, sufficiently high to make the risk worthwhile in my book,

12/18 – 8:10 p.m. New York time

Two earnings plays using options, BB and RHT, appear likely to qualify for analysis and possibly trading on Tuesday. A third, MU, might qualify as well.

I’m also looking at an options trade on FDX, but the waters are muddied by a bearish earnings surprise predictor (ESP) combined with an ongoing uptrend shown by the direction indices (+DI, -DI) and the average direction index (ADX). Unless the disparate metrics are resolved by Tuesday, it will be stricken from my list of prospects.

I’m also looking at four potential earnings plays using shares, but all have troubled metrics. AU, PLPM and REVG aren’t trending, as shown by their low ADX readings. WGO is trending but has a small ESP, below 0.5%, which increases the risk for a shares play, which must be bullish.

I’ve also been considering GIS, but it has a negative ESP and a bearish Zacks rank, so I’ve removed it from my prospects list as unlikely to improve. I shall perform due diligence with a check Tuesday morning, but with little hope.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 18-19, 2017


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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