Live: Tuesday, March 20, 2018

3/20 – 3:10 p.m. New York time

I entered a shares position on EL and exited none of my holdings.

3/20 – 2:35 p.m. New York time

I have entered a shares position on EL.

3/20 – 1:25 p.m. New York time

After taking a second look at LL, I’ve concluded that the Elliott wave count is ambiguous. The question is whether the corrective 4th wave up in the downtrend that began in Sept. 8, 2017 is in fact compete. Most often 4th waves are sideways movements, if that is the case with this 4th wave, which began Feb. 28, then the downward movement of the last few days could be simply a fluctuation within that 4th wave. I’m interested in trading the 5th wave down and so, while the ambiguity persists, I shall hold back from further action on LL.

3/20 – 11:40 a.m. New York time

Today’s prospects list is similar to yesterday’s. VLO has dropped off after moving to an uptrend. Otherwise, the same characters.

At this point, in keeping with the Elliott wave bear trend in the markets, I am looking for trades with high expectations of a negative earnings surprise (Zacks Earnings Surprise Estimate of -3 or lower), a neutral to bearish Zacks Rank (3 or greater), and a downtrend on the Fisher Transform.

Of the 10 symbols meeting those criteria, LL is of the greatest interest, having a higher implied volatility relative to the other symbols in the list, and also having a bid/ask spread below 10%.

I shall focus on LL today, setting aside the others: EXAS, HAL, HAS, LNG, NOV, OLN, PSX and WHR.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 20, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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