Live: Monday, June 18, 2018

10:20 a.m. New York time

The Fisher Transform on the SPY daily chart has switched to a downtrend signal. The weekly-bar chart continues to signal uptrending.

Elliott wave analysis of the chart shows SPY in a 4th wave down at the Submicro degree, to be followed by a 5th wave up that in a normal formation would complete the 2nd wave upward correction in the Subminuette degree, to be followed by the start of the 3rds wave down in the Minuette degree, which is the wave I plan to ride.

So, no trades today, most likely. But I’m keeping a close eye on the chart.

In this market stocks and their derivatives tend to be closely correlated, with very few stocks and funds bucking the trend. In an effort to find alternatives to trade, I did some chart work on GLD — gold bullion — and FXE — the Euro/Dollar fund.

I found the GLD chart to lack clarity at this stage and I have set it aside. FXE has been in a B wave to the downside within a higher-degree 4th have since May 14 and might be worth playing on the C-wave reversal upward. I’m keeping watch.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 18, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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