Live: Tuesday, June 19, 2018

10:10 a.m. New York time

SPY has opened with a downward gap as the 4th wave down of the Submicro degree continues, Elliott wave analysis shows. The 3rd wave peaked on June 13 at 279.48. As of this writing SPY is trading at $274.40, which is 1.8% below that peak.

The market talk-talk is blaming the accelerating U.S.-China trade war for the decline. In the broader context of the chart, it’s a very small response, and one consistent with the pre-existing trend. So, “Balderdash!”, I say.

The low significance of the fall is buttressed by the  Fisher Transform, which is unchanged: Downtrending on the daily chart and uptrending on the weekly chart.

The chart covers 20 days with 30-minute bars.


My shares position on ARKG continues to tick-tock along a rising 5th wave of the Primary degree. It has fulfilled all of the requirements for that wave and so could reverse into a correction without doing damage to the analysis. It could also continue to rise for some time. The daily and weekly Fishers remain uptrending.

The chart covers a 5-year span with one-week bars. The beginning of the bear market, on Jan. 26, is marked with a red line.


In either case, at this point I see no need for a trade today

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 19, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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