The Week Ahead: Prices, retail, industry and the Fed glitterati

Pissarro_-_marketplace-gisors-1891
The Marketplace in Gisors (1891) by Camille Pissarro

Prices rule the week in economic data releases, the producer price index-final demand out Wednesday and the closely watched consumer price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other new numbers influencing the markets will be released on Friday, retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

In a switch from number to narrative, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday at 2 p.m. will publish the Beige Book describing conditions in each of the Fed’s twelve districts. Gripping plot, zany characters — a must-read for those who love the genre.

Two Federal Reserve governors have public appearances during the week.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard will speak to the Detroit Economic Club about the economic and monetary policy outlook, on Wednesday at 12:45 p.m. New York time.

And Fed Gov. Randal Quarles, the vice chairman for supervision, will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. His subject will be implementation of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act of 2018, legislation that eases regulations imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act financial reforms after the crisis of 2007-08. The hearing begins on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The producer price index-final demand at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Fed Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday: The consumer price index and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m., the natural gas report at 10:30 a.m., the Treasury budget at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Retail sales and export and import prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and industrial production and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 10-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and  10-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 8, 2018

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License
Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

 

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